AMD - bearish wedge & spinning top reversal. P/E 167 says it all

2020년 7월 28일

For any professional trader the situation is obvious:
1) Rising (bearish) wedge
2) Spinning top candlestick
3) Overbought RSI on both, Daily and Weekly
4) Low volume compared to the previous bullish candle
5) Overinflated P/E

At this point, I can actually finish describing my call since it's more than enough to explain why "short" is the only way to go right now.
However, I would like to go a little bit further: Bulls have to understand, that the only reason for AMD's "bullishness" is the decline of Intel stocks (Blue line on the chart).
There is nothing else behind it and here is why:

1) New Ryzens will be released at the end of the year. Right now, AMD's sales are bad.
2) Ryzen XT processors failed in every single review. Those CPU's simply don't make sense since AMD asking $100 for 100MHz. If we would live in 1995, $1 per 1Mhz could be justified. But not in 2020.
3) Earnings that should be announced today not going to be good under no circumstances. Even in the beginning, right after the release of Zen2, AMD had bad earnings with a negative surprise and obviously, it's not going to be better now, when sales declined and potential customers waiting for the new generation of Ryzens, which makes a lot of sense.

If this is not enough for you to stay in cash and away from AMD for now - don't worry, you still will earn experience ;)

2020년 7월 28일

노트

Earnings call starting in 25 minutes

2020년 7월 29일

노트

Making conclusions about the long term targets based on performance 12 hours after the call isn't wise. Don't be fooled by a momentary spike.
As always - buy low, sell high. Not vise versa