Possible AMD long entry now

2021년 1월 15일

Long entry idea 90, target 110-120 for a ~20% gain.

Please leave some feedback, what do you think about the situation?

Hi guys, this is my first idea post.

As you can see, the trendline is nice and exact on the 4H-1D chart. The previous earnings showed similar patterns, with similar hype around the ER. As i see the fundamentals are stronger now, but the political scene is much worse.

Funamental catalysts.:
- Zen3 . more about this: Zen3 is the first of the ryzen family to completely take over intel. Both gaming and productivity. The zen2 architecture was good as well, but AMD tweaked the knobs at the lowest lewel, so archieved 20% more instructions per clock (IPC) for a 20% gain in overall IPC gain over zen2. The zen3 chips are in huge demand, you can read several posts about the availability, but not just that they are good, they are in higher demand than their intel counterparts. For the first time in 10 years, AMD has more than 50% market share in desktop cpus This IPC tweaking will take place in laptop chips as well (announced Ces 2021), so there is a good chance seeing 15-25% gains over zen2 laptop chips. Furthermore, this does not require more power, so they can be put in ultrathin 2in1-s and high end gaming laptops. Beside these all of their chips (including the laptop ones) can be overclocked and support backwards compatibility. Zen 3 was built to be scalable from the lowest end to the highest end server CPU-s. Zen 3 based EPYC codenam Milan is announced, offering ~50% more compute power than the rivals(CES). Couple of supercomputers are currently in the making with all amd parts (cpu + gpu). Ces2021 Lisa Su announced 50% more OEM products to go with their chips. The event was largely about the connections and partnerships AMD has.
- Console sales : Both the new gen consoles come with amd processor and both of them are in short supply with extreme demand
- Mining: The crypto craze is back which means GPU shortage. How lucky that AMD has some of those, closing the gap with nvidia counterparts. Altough they are certainly not the best, the offer (at some models) a better valuse both for basic pc building or mining. Some amd cards proved to be more effective at mining than nvidia ones with better ROI (return on investment) times.
- Samsung : Samsung officially working together on samsungs's SoC where AMD will provide the gpu fundamentals. Leaks show, that they can beat the current snapdragon 888. Samsung said on their Exynos event, their next flagship will have this Soc. This could be in this year the Z fold 3 or in 2022 the S series. Apart the pones, this SoC could be put in tablets or even laptops.
- Xilinx. AMD plans to acquire Xilinx by the end of 2021.

Drawbacks
- Current political scene
- Intel : Third Points letter to intel seems to have a big impact on intel and AMD as well. Intel is doing which written in the letter, which meand they switched CEO (to ex-intel now VMware CEO) and outsorced the production to TSMC (which makes produce for amd and apple as well). All these resulted intel gaining and amd losing.

Bottom line. AMD has plenty of potential given the fundamentals and the chart as well. Intel however is gaining, it will take a while with the new CEO, outsorcing and reduced margins to get back the their old glory. Intels upcoming 4FAMILY AND MORE THAN 150 CPU may be a threat to AMD.