I've updated the chart I shared on Nov. 10th to account for the small W pattern which formed between Nov. 3 - 15.
When you look back at the Cycle 1 Wedge (between Jan - June), you see a similar pattern formed between the TEAL touch point of the ascending low trend line and the YELLOW touch point of the descending highs trend line. With that new information, I took 4 sets of bars patterns using a .75 - 2.16x scale and fib to approximate placement in the Cycle 2 Wedge (which we are currently in). If correct (not saying I am), this means we are nearing the April 27 touchpoint (YELLOW CIRCLE). I do believe we are in the second half of April from Cycle 1.
I have a second chart I will share which shows us in a small Wyckoff accumulation (nested inside of a larger distribution) which I expect to conclude in the next couple of days, before we retrace back toward the ascending lows trend line and make that touch point represented in PURPLE.
This play shifts all the time, so these farther out routes to completing the cycle are really tough to nail down in terms of timing. For me, I'll be satisfied by watching the general direction the chart moves and will continue to readjust as we print new data points to consider with actual trading.
Final point, the red bars pattern is purely hypothetical (though based on the past). I think of it like a breadcrumb trail to see if my framing of the past matches where we are not. When we go off the path, I know it's time to reconsider the data.
When you look back at the Cycle 1 Wedge (between Jan - June), you see a similar pattern formed between the TEAL touch point of the ascending low trend line and the YELLOW touch point of the descending highs trend line. With that new information, I took 4 sets of bars patterns using a .75 - 2.16x scale and fib to approximate placement in the Cycle 2 Wedge (which we are currently in). If correct (not saying I am), this means we are nearing the April 27 touchpoint (YELLOW CIRCLE). I do believe we are in the second half of April from Cycle 1.
I have a second chart I will share which shows us in a small Wyckoff accumulation (nested inside of a larger distribution) which I expect to conclude in the next couple of days, before we retrace back toward the ascending lows trend line and make that touch point represented in PURPLE.
This play shifts all the time, so these farther out routes to completing the cycle are really tough to nail down in terms of timing. For me, I'll be satisfied by watching the general direction the chart moves and will continue to readjust as we print new data points to consider with actual trading.
Final point, the red bars pattern is purely hypothetical (though based on the past). I think of it like a breadcrumb trail to see if my framing of the past matches where we are not. When we go off the path, I know it's time to reconsider the data.
