Cardano (ADAUSD) attempt number 3 to breakout downtrend line?

Hi all,

Let's take a look at my chart.

As you can see we have already had 2 attempts to breakout the downtrend line (the green line). Both attempts failed (red circles).

At the moment ADA is trying to breakout the downtrend again. Will ADA succeed?

Scenario 1:
ADA will follow the Cypher Pattern to the 0.26 - 0.29 zone. Be aware that a retrace to 0.5, 0.618 or even the 0.786 fibonacci level is possible after this Cypher Pattern. The good thing is that ADA will be out of the downtrend since the ATH.

Scenario 2.
ADA is hanging exactly on the 0.618 levels. If this level doens't hold a retrace to the initial bear flag target is possible.

What is your opinion on this?

(this is NOT a financial advise, but just my trading idea).