Elliott Wave View: US Dollar Index Turning Lower

11월 29일

Dollar Index (DXY) has reached 100% Fibonacci extension from 7.17.2023 low and ended the cycle. The rally is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 7.17.2023 low, wave (W) ended at 107.34 and wave (X) pullback ended at 100.15. Wave (Y) higher ended at 108 which completed wave ((W)) in higher degree as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave ((X)) is currently in progress with a possible zigzag structure. Down from wave ((X)), wave (i) ended at 107.31 and wave (ii) ended at 107.71. Wave (iii) lower ended at 106.8 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 107.24.

Final leg wave (v) ended at 106.58 which completed wave ((i)). Wave ((ii)) rally ended at 107.5 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 107.14 and wave (b) ended at 106.77. Wave (c) higher ended at 107.5 which completed wave ((ii)). The Index has resumed lower again in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 106.49 and wave (ii) ended at 107.19. Wave (iii) lower ended at 106 and wave (iv) ended at 106.4. Final wave (v) ended at 105.85 which completed wave ((iii)). Wave ((iv)) rally ended at 106.41. Expect Index to extend lower in wave ((v)) before turning higher in 3 waves. Near term, as far as pivot at 108.08 high is intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.