ACB Accumulation

2020년 6월 17일

While I am almost certain that there is more pain ahead on the earnings front, at the current valuation, ACB is trading with a market cap this is almost in line with their fundamentals. I would say a market cap of just around $1B would be fair value, while it currently trades with a market cap of roughly $1.4B.

ACB has my interest again since they are cleaning out their closets. Together with APHA, these guys remain the assets that have the most potential for a strategic investment or merger, and in anticipation of institutional money returning to the space later this year, I'm thinking ACB will have a lot of upside. Investors are looking for confirmation, perhaps a good earnings call or other news to send the stock higher and justify faith in positive EBITDA FY21.

We are looking at a falling wedge, with decreasing volume. I'm considering to accumulate shares in the green zone, or alternatively buy in to a bullish break of this wedge. The latter is the safest play. I haven't yet decided if I trust these guys again.

2020년 6월 18일

노트

Actually, I'm going to stay sidelined. There is a Bullish Crab harmonic pattern in play that suggests a gap fill if we don't get any catalysts to drive the price.

Trade with caution, everybody! This beast has taken enough of our money.