Just Because It’s Big Doesn’t Mean It’s Smart

JPY Call Spread Breakdown: Bullish Signal — Or Just Obvious FOMO?

A new vertical call spread appeared in JPY options yesterday (per CME Globex data):

Long 0.0069 Call
Short 0.007025 Call
🎯 Target: 0.007025 — upside continuation play.
Open interest increased at both strikes → new position, not a roll.

Size? Relatively large for JPY (based on systematic observations).

⏰ When Was It Opened?
9:45 AM CT — after yesterday’s sharp rally in JPY futures.
In fact — right at the top of the move.

📌 Not before the move.
But after the impulse, on momentum.

🔍 Combining Flow + Chart Context:
Price had already spiked up.
The spread bets on further upside .

🧠 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sentiment: Bullish
❌ Predictive value: Low — nearly zero

Why?

The setup is too obvious.
No evidence of insider-like timing.
If this had been placed before the move — yes, it would matter.
But opening at the peak? That’s not edge — it’s FOMO dressed as strategy.
🚫 Will I go long JPY futures based on this?
No.

Not because I doubt the move.
But because this isn’t smart money behavior — it’s trend-chasing.

🎯 Final Lesson:
Not every large options trade is a signal.
Always ask:

When was it placed?
Why here?
Who’s behind it?

🔍 True edge isn’t in the trade itself — it’s in the context around it.