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potential bull run to the Q3 earnings

업데이트됨

The news are great, the fundamentals better than ever, but the stock is dropping.

WHY?

The big reason is, that big money wants to buy your share before the next bull run.
Therefore they try to push the price into liquidity zones where a lot of Stop/Losses are triggered.
250€ and 200€ are important Fibonacci targets which act like magnets.

Bull Case:

These are the current support zones.

If we assume that we have a finished Elliott Wave, than 250€ could be a support with the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracment.

This is the current Elliott Wave count, eventhough it's not quite perfect. Ignoring some minor flaws, it's still intact.

If we do a normal extention than we could have a first target nearby 600€ (700$) and 800€ (903$) for the long term.
(bear in mind that there could be an overthrow due to the hype in a parabolic movement)

Are 600€ even possible?
Fundamentally, Yes. Technically, Yes.
We had a 144% gain on the last run to the Q2 earnings which we need now for a 600€ target.

What are the risk?

If the Elliott Wave isn't correct, than we could drop even further to the bigger correction nearby 200€.

The current sentiment is extremely cautious due to the Evergrand situation. It's all about timing now if we hit the perfekt window.

PS: I'm just drawing lines. These charts are extremely speculativ. Do your own due dilligence!

노트

On the end of the last week we had the "black swan" news about the Merck corona pill.
Therefore, we saw the next drop to the next support level.

This was my TA before the big correction. (can be found on my last Idea update).
We dropped faster than expected, but the target was reached.

usd chart:

Now we are starting to see the first signs of a momentum shift.
The indicators are looking good, the supports are holding and we see a good buying force from our target.

The risk is still high and we could even drop to a range nearby 210 - 200$.
On the other hand this scenario is exactly what big money wants to see.
We have some good news coming up the next weeks and a potenial momentum shift is imminent.

The drop has lowered our upper Fibonacci target to 520€.

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EUR 2D Chart:

USD Chart:

Risk:

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usd chart:

We are forming an ascending triangle at the moment. Normally a bullish pattern, although a triangle is a continuation pattern in general.
In our case, we are trying to breach the 260$ mark, which should fall if it gets hit a forth time.
The up movements were strong accompanied by high volume. In comparison, the downmovements were slowly and had low volume. This indicates an momentum shift with a increasing buying force.

Worst case scenario:

As I've mentioned above, a triangle is a continuation pattern.
We could drop if market makers still want to load up their shares. They seek for zones with high liquidiy and that could be found if a lot of Stop/Losses would be triggered.

Regarding the increasing buying power, the support of an important algo target and the timing before the Q3 report, I give this case something under 20%.
I'm still bullish.

노트

The bearish case should be over for now.

노트

As predicted, we started the bullish wave upwards and are hovering at point (4) at the moment. Eventhough we had the Novavax Fud, the uptrend is still intact.

4h timeframe usd chart:

15 min timeframe usd chart:

RSI analysis:

Risk:

Overall I'm still bullish until the Q3 ER and beyong, eventhough it becomes unlikey that we reach our longterm targets in time. Those targets are still intact, but will be delayed into the future.

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