- Estimates the risk of BTC price versus the USD - To be used on the daily timeframe - Works best on a BTC pair that has a lot of bars, e.g. The Bitcoin All Time History Index - 0 is the lowest risk, 1 is the highest risk - Historically, buying when the risk was low and selling when the risk was high would have yielded good ROI - The risk bands are 0.1 in width and are highlighted on the plot
Typical Strategy: - weighted DCA into the market when risk <0.5, do nothing between 0.5-0.6 and weighted DCA out of the market when risk >0.6 - x = buy amount per DCA interval - y = 1/10th total BTC held by the user - if 0 ≤ Risk < 0.1 then buy 5x - if 0.1 ≤ Risk < 0.2 then buy 4x - if 0.2 ≤ Risk < 0.3 then buy 3x - if 0.3 ≤ Risk < 0.4 then buy 2x - if 0.4 ≤ Risk < 0.5 then buy x - if 0.5 ≤ Risk < 0.6 then do nothing - if 0.6 ≤ Risk < 0.7 then sell y - if 0.7 ≤ Risk < 0.8 then sell 2y - if 0.8 ≤ Risk < 0.9 then sell 3y - if 0.9 ≤ Risk ≤ 1.0 then sell 4y
릴리즈 노트
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- Changed the default display format - Added a color gradient for the risk value - Added an input to select between the gradient and standard blue line
릴리즈 노트
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- Added price estimations for risk thresholds - Uses todays data to estimate the price that corresponds to each risk threshold - Displays the price corresponding to each threshold on the right side of the chart - Price estimation display can be turned off and on via user input
@JerryCooper, this indicator was developed for BTCUSD, not altcoins. mrahmansurrey is correct in that most alt coins have a strong correlation with BTC but BTC typically peaks at a different time than alt coins. For example, BTC peaked in April 2020 while ETH did not peak until May. This indicator will have high risk values when the alt coins are over extended but I think the timing could be off. I don't recommend using this indicator for alt coins.
There is a plan for an alt coin indicator in the future.
How is this risk metric actually evaluated? thanks for the indicator btw
sputnik_404
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Wonderful indicator thanks a lot!
Whawk55555
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Hi, what happened with this one?
mwblight
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Hello and thank you for being so generous and providing this indicator free of charge. Its much appreciated.
Do you still have plans to provide an Alt coin, or even just ETH, indicator?
Cheers
germaindaily
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@Skywalking2874 This is the best free investor indicator for BTC ! I understand the sell strategy but I don't understand the buy strategy! Imagine I have a capital of 1200$ for a 12 month time for this strategy, with normal DCA I would buy 100$ per month. With your strategy for example: - if 0.3 ≤ Risk < 0.4 then buy 2x - that means that I have to buy for 200$ on this month? - if 0 ≤ Risk < 0.1 then buy 5x - that means that I have to buy for 500$ on this month? Is this the right way to do it? Thank you very much, can't wait for the altcoin indicator ;)