Hello there! I am excited to share with you my new trading concept implemented in the "VaR Market Sentiment" indicator. But before that, let me explain what VaR is. VaR, or Value at Risk, is an indicator that helps you identify the worst-case scenario of a market movement based on a percentile/confidence level. This means that it calculates the worst moves, whether it's a buy or sell, based on the timeframe you're using.
Now, let's discuss how VaR Market Sentiment works. It uses a historical VaR to calculate the worst move either if the market goes up or down based on a percentile/confidence level. The default setting is the 95th percentile, which means that the market is unlikely to hit your SL level within the day if you're using a daily timeframe, etc.
To determine the strength of a candle, it subtracts the value of both sides based on the returns of the current timeframe with the VaR value (Bullish VaR - Bullish Returns, Bearish VaR - Bearish Returns). If the result is above the mean, the current candle is potentially weak. Conversely, if the result is below the mean, the current candle is potentially strong. The deviation shows critical sentiments, where if the market is above the deviation, it means that the current candle is really weak. If it's below the deviation, it means that the current candle is really strong.
It's important to note that this indicator needs other supporting indicators such as trend-following or mean reversion indicators based on your trading style. Also, as a follow-up to my previous concept, I called out that the market has what's called "power." And for now, I conclude that VaR Market Sentiment is the "power."
I'm going to share more helpful indicators in the future! I hope this indicator will be helpful for you guys! Ciao!
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Fixed Length
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I just realized that the length has no use to it, as the purpose of the indicator is to analyze the strength of the current candle.
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Volume Weighted option added. This option could help you identify whether the current volume is strong based on the current bar. So it doesn't mean that if there is a high volume, it's a strong bar, vice versa.