Hey everyone! I am back! Did you miss me? If you would like more analysis, please, comment and like my article. My approach for the $0.08 / $ 0.10 target is a top down approach and I mainly use Elliot Waves Theory from Prechter et.al – (2018) 1 - I have identified a 5 impulse waves structure responding to the typical Fibonacci retracement and 5 corrective wave structure that I have called A
1) The impulse waves from September 2018 did not reach higher highs vis-à-vis the impulse waves in April 2018 2) The impulse wave from September is in 3 times which is typical for a correction in ABC (0.786 of A) in turquoise - they are moving inside B
As a consequence, if and only if we assume that A is a 5 wave corrective structure of 12345 impulse wave from April and B is an ABC corrective structure and believing that the retracements are consistent with the Fibonacci rules, C must be a 5 wave corrective structure.
It would be a 12345 impulse wave corrected in ABC 5 - 3 - 5 Zigzag - following the same rules A is generally equals to C but can correct lower... (61.8%, 100% or 1.236 in extension) It means that XRP should correct to the below price 61.8% = $0.52 <-- failed 100% = $0.25 <-- will be tested 1.236 = $0.08 / $0.10 ? The question is will $0.25 hold? to assume and inquiry this question I need to find a confluence to other retracement related to my current analysis...
The trendline!!
We can clearly see that XRP is evolving in descending channel. Surprisingly we find a confluence of support at 0.08
Believing that we are currently in a 5 wave corrective structure - I have been able to identify a retracement of 0.786 for wave 2
Being more granular, I have identified the first 3 waves in turquoise inside the biggest 3rd wave in red and they all respond perfectly to my retracement. It means that we are currently in the Fourth wave - following the EW rules, we should reach at least 0.382 retracement -$0.40
The Third big wave (red) should end at $0.22 / $ 0.25 The Fourth big wave (red) should test the current level at nearly $ 0.35 The Fifth wave could be truncated and end at the same level, which is at nearly $ 0.25 and it would confirm the above hypothesis
However, the Fifth wave corrective truncation happens during bull markets and we are currently finishing a great bear market that has corrected a long 12345 wave structure
Moreover, the volume profile is showing a titanesque support at nearly $0.10
If XRP reaches $0.25, I would be able to draw a symmetrical triangle, which is a continuation pattern.
According to the Wyckoff rules, if the triangle is broken below, the base should follow down which is at nearly $ 0.10 - $ 0.08
Be aware that anything can change at any time (please, do not take my analysis as a trading advice)- this analysis is solely based on what I currently see for XRP today. I would update you if I see anything changing.
Saying this, does it change anything for the future of XRP? Absolutely not! I firmly believe that XRP has a huge potential and it will overtake Bitcoin very soon... I mean very soon– when finishing this correction, XRP will reach higher highs and I believe that the price will skyrocket! Take care everyone.
Ma maîtrise est sans faille et mon skill sans égal
I think that you are correct...until momentum returns....who knows when that will be.
Don't catch a falling knife until you see a clear change, in momentum, on the daily.
Nice review. Could happen definitely. I think XRP sentiment is this year still stronger then previous years. Maybe it will takeover BTC someday, it's now ranking nr. 2. Faster transaction, premined, growing social network, I don't know. Every way is possible. One is TA and other human psychology :P regards
@arkain, I'm total amateur. Looking charts btc vs xrp vs eth vs ltc for about year, I have strange feeling, that xrp can maybe takeover eth ICO projects, a lot of hatters of xrp.A lot of rumors, speculations. I don't know. We will see. :D
NoobOfTheMonth
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Absolutely no idea what these lines and numbers mean, but you say the stuff I‘m expecting. After failed support at $0.35 a second test of $0.25. Also you are as clueless as me on the question - will that support hold?... or break. I dont expect 0.0x prices though.
Also, perhaps the log chart isnt as correct?
Thanks again!