ABCD Correction: CME Over-Exuberance & Fear of the Unknown
업데이트됨
Disclaimer: This is an opinion based on experience and analysis, meant only to add to your own formulated opinions, not give you a trade to take.
There's been an incredible amount of fear surrounding the CBOE and CME futures contract, mostly because people don't really understand them. The first ride on the futures merry-go-round brought the price down instantly. So, the automatic knee-jerk reaction is that every contract will bring it down. Yet, it should be noted that their announcement brought the price up wildly. There has been gain and loss, so far. As expected.
Swings seem to have caused the price action of Bitcoin to go so high that it forgot to retrace its previous price rise from around $8350. There have been other views which claim every bull run has retraced to close a price gap, (reference forthcoming). The only price gap I see still open is the aforementioned one at $8350. Using trend analysis, you can draw pretty clear lines leading to around $7550 as a compensation for the over-exuberance of the bull market due to the introduction of futures contracts. The first correction after the CME announcement was around 29-11-2017 and was declared 'over' at somewhere near 9135, however, it appears now that closing that gap from 8350 to 9135 is, in fact, 'in the cards', based on a trend analysis of the current downward movement. Savvy investors have pointed to an 8K prediction since that time, and it looks by all sings like we're getting it.
And, on that note, let's be honest. Futures is just betting. There's no ownership of the asset, and the bets are private - meaning we (the retail consumers of Bitcoin) gain absolutely nothing from their existence, other than the opportunity to sell the news, and the abject terror when the market moves as a result of it (so far).
Anyway, I assume the bounce from 7550 levels will be aggressively bought into.
There is the (3xBearish) scenario that $7550 will be ignored and the price will drop further. Personally, if that DOES happen, I'm going to make the assumption that most of the Bitcoin in existence is in the hands of institutional traders, whether they be old whales or new. From there, I'd expect the price to be driven to $2999 and repurchased for another round of ponzi scheme trading in a few years. That would make Bitcoin worthless, for my needs.
However, I DON'T think that is the case and will work off the assumption that $7550 will be the the absolute floor which is only touched once, as an unconscious psychological punishment for over-reaching $8350 after CME, CBOE & The Moon.
From where it is today, at the bottom of the minor ascending support line (marked in red), could hold if enough volume comes in to push it above the resistance of the ABCD correction, though I personally doubt it.
Overall, though, I think the future of Bitcoin will be bright. Whales aren't just idiots who bought bitcoin early. They're early adopters because they recognized value. That value still exists as long as you can transfer value outside of the banking system. Let's not forget how badly every bank has extorted the poor and needy, and how much distaste there actually is for them. They'll be on best behavior for as long as they can resist the temptation to nickel and dime us, but once it happens and the face of institutional extortion shows itself again, Bitcoin will go up.
Thank you for reading. This has been my first published idea on Tradingview.
There's been an incredible amount of fear surrounding the CBOE and CME futures contract, mostly because people don't really understand them. The first ride on the futures merry-go-round brought the price down instantly. So, the automatic knee-jerk reaction is that every contract will bring it down. Yet, it should be noted that their announcement brought the price up wildly. There has been gain and loss, so far. As expected.
Swings seem to have caused the price action of Bitcoin to go so high that it forgot to retrace its previous price rise from around $8350. There have been other views which claim every bull run has retraced to close a price gap, (reference forthcoming). The only price gap I see still open is the aforementioned one at $8350. Using trend analysis, you can draw pretty clear lines leading to around $7550 as a compensation for the over-exuberance of the bull market due to the introduction of futures contracts. The first correction after the CME announcement was around 29-11-2017 and was declared 'over' at somewhere near 9135, however, it appears now that closing that gap from 8350 to 9135 is, in fact, 'in the cards', based on a trend analysis of the current downward movement. Savvy investors have pointed to an 8K prediction since that time, and it looks by all sings like we're getting it.
And, on that note, let's be honest. Futures is just betting. There's no ownership of the asset, and the bets are private - meaning we (the retail consumers of Bitcoin) gain absolutely nothing from their existence, other than the opportunity to sell the news, and the abject terror when the market moves as a result of it (so far).
Anyway, I assume the bounce from 7550 levels will be aggressively bought into.
There is the (3xBearish) scenario that $7550 will be ignored and the price will drop further. Personally, if that DOES happen, I'm going to make the assumption that most of the Bitcoin in existence is in the hands of institutional traders, whether they be old whales or new. From there, I'd expect the price to be driven to $2999 and repurchased for another round of ponzi scheme trading in a few years. That would make Bitcoin worthless, for my needs.
However, I DON'T think that is the case and will work off the assumption that $7550 will be the the absolute floor which is only touched once, as an unconscious psychological punishment for over-reaching $8350 after CME, CBOE & The Moon.
From where it is today, at the bottom of the minor ascending support line (marked in red), could hold if enough volume comes in to push it above the resistance of the ABCD correction, though I personally doubt it.
Overall, though, I think the future of Bitcoin will be bright. Whales aren't just idiots who bought bitcoin early. They're early adopters because they recognized value. That value still exists as long as you can transfer value outside of the banking system. Let's not forget how badly every bank has extorted the poor and needy, and how much distaste there actually is for them. They'll be on best behavior for as long as they can resist the temptation to nickel and dime us, but once it happens and the face of institutional extortion shows itself again, Bitcoin will go up.
Thank you for reading. This has been my first published idea on Tradingview.
노트
Potentially breaking out of the downtrend simply by default - indecision has kept it afloat for long enough to potentially invalidate a drop to ~8350. Could still do it over the next day (Saturday). Here's hoping it stays afloat.
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