Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
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Encouraging to see life breathing back into Crypto markets with the NY open, a pick-up in corp interest as we reach the bottom of the demand zone. In house client activity picked up and notably $ outflows are impressive sizes with entrenched conviction in $ softness for the months to come.
There is a serious build up of FOMO in BTC that we will see act as a catalyst for these moves and give us the extension in the short-term, as USD devaluation moderates after 1H20 the halving will dictate position-squaring and a change in the BTC landscape. For those in BTCUSD a breach of 6380 support would invalidate the entire bullish bias that has been constructed for the best part of three months and would bring in a test of 2300. Chatter of large buys continue to circulate and ultimately I expect dips in BTCUSD and BTCEUR to be bought into on grounds of position adjustment/engagement.
To the topside breaching the resistance on good volume and catalysing momentum on the long term chart means we can comfortably lean on the buy side as long as 6380 holds:
Overall, I see the case for meaningful BTC strength in 2020, but especially if considered versus USD, rather than EUR or GBP - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger BTC risk lies to the topside.