Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
설명
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I've seen many charts of people eagerly proclaiming that the bottom is in, because an ascending triangle is forming, and that is super bullish!
Well sorry to be the bringer of bad news, but most of the time, and ascending triangle in a bearmarket is a bearish continuation pattern.
And this here shows all the signs of such a pattern: 1. Volume is declining more and more 2. Strong impulse move from 6500 to 3100, and then long sidewayish ping/pong action 3. Volume not high enough yet to be bottom
Apart from that, why is BTC taking so long to decide?
1d and 3d bbands are still quite wide, need to narrow more. Also 1w bband is approaching fast.
Most of the time, the ascending triangle in such a configuration breaks downwards between 50-75% of triangle completion. On bitmex, we're a bit over half of triangle completion, so it can still go on doing this boring ping-pong for weeks until it hits the upper resistance line.
Also 3d and 1w stoch RSI are still massively overbought.
This let's me think that the likelihood for a bearish continuation with a final low is at around 80%. But BTC could surprise us with a weird upwards break. This would need to happen with large volume. But the probability for that is maximum 20% imho.
코멘트
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If BTC daily candle closes at or above MA200/log resistance, the trade is cancelled and bullish breakout confirmed.
Bitcoin's correction needs more time. Everyone on twitter being super bullish just leads me to believe we got a dump incoming.
SebastianofMoon
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@lemonsandshade, Exactly my thought also. Too many people are very bullish and therefore no true capitulation has occured yet.
BearFuck
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ha-ha-ha
Androck29
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@BearFuck, this chart aged so well.. guys.... TA is not a crystal ball. its all probabilities. I hope you didn't get REKT by front running this move. LOL
Coinamic
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Good job man, the ascending triangle is something that I´ve been calling for weeks. This is my last analysis, bear trap soon a very bullish April.
SebastianofMoon
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@babyjungle, Looking very good ! Yes, a fakeout is extremely likely. BTC really likes to do that kind of stuff. It will almost go through the resistance, and then BAMMM, start dumping instead. But yes, April could be quite bullish still, before we start seeing dumps. Thanks for sharing your good analysis !
Coinamic
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@FlaviusTodorius67, my pleasure.
go8686
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This is exact my question, Thank you.
I created a Poll about this topic, welcome vote
Great to receive a new analysis from you. I am also leaning bearish and see far too much bullishness on CT. As soon as Alts start pumping, people get so irrational but it does appear that many of them have at least bottomed against their bitcoin pairing since their respective December or January lows. What are your thoughts on this point?
Secondly, when do you believe that the market will start to price in the upcoming bitcoin halving?