Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
설명
⋅
Being overly defensive is not an act of religious charity, rather a strategic advantage to flow from the demand zone that we established with the Bakkt Floor. There is only one exceptional case in which a weak swing has any justifiable claim to be over-protected, that is when it is being nursed through the function of a growing giant.
For example:
The base of the swing was formed live here when we traded the overprotection. With this we said farewell to sellers and presented another sad case of "the last offer".
Here after the break we are no longer required to talk so much about the technicals. BTC is benefiting from the risk-off sentiment and after trading above $9,500 earlier in the week the Crypto board is turning to the next chapter. A little higher this morning as more risk comes off. Remember BTC also has the fundamental driver via halving entering back into play which I would expect to continue finding demand on dips towards $9,000, while also keeping a close eye on the $10,000 window where we find some further profit taking.
The flows remain towards: $13,500 => $16,000 => $33,000
It always boils down to the same situation; a complex swing which may look sound, but has one stick opponent. According to the technical rules, the damage was already done on the break.
I will continue to trade the buy side for now and actively looking to add longs on the day in BTC, LTC, EOS and other major Cryptos. If we get enough interest we can start to open up the faster intraday flows for Cryptos on Hourly and H4 charts.
As usual thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Thank you for your analysis. Do you feel there are some chances that price will turn down to 7200 ish?
Iam seing divergences on 1D ... looks like double top to me. Would very appreciate some answer :) Love your deep dive analysis! Have a great day!
ridethepig
⋅
@Matyas44 is looking at the divergences and tracking a pullback, completely valid:
ridethepig
⋅
On the technicals, notice how the stoch is coiling in 2019 as the vol was compressed; while you are right to mention that a 'pullback' is still open and in play currently ( it was also the case before price exploded to the topside in June 19). Any dips look very attractive, you will also notice how quickly price is becoming "NOT" overbought. A double top? I disagree on this one.
On the fundamental side, given that markets are struggling to shrug off risk around coronavirus, the inflows will continue to use BTC as an instrument to park capital. The caveat here for those tracking event-risk is coming from the other side of the coin, in case we should clear all risk around the virus in the immediate term (unlikely as per today forecasts) and focus shifts back towards CB co-ordinated monetary policy / global reflation theme. Remember investors were happy to jump on at the end of 2019, this scenario would then start to play out and provide strong fundamental demand for BTC.
I noticed there is a bearish divergence on RSI 1D time frame. Is that something what we dont need to pay attention too much?
Also, i have been always a fan of long term analysis. Weekly RSI in past always went down under 44, and bottomed around less than 35. This time, it looks like it is still on the way to the bottom.
There is lot of preasure from fundamental, which are taking the price up, i understand that. The pattern might change and weekly RSI will not do the same this time.
Please see the screenshot ( the middle zone is transition between trends. If the price appear in the transition zone, it the trend always changed...