Though we broke below the Fibonacci 61.8 retracement on Thursday the daily close is still above that level. At the beginning of this year we printed a nice rally from 1045 to 1375$. The 61.8% pullback level of this rally is at 1171$. The Fibonacci 61.8 retracement is a very important level. If we are still in a bull market price shouldn't close below that level on the weekly basis. The intraday chart can break below but price must recover by the end of the day or next day the latest. This is exactly what happened today. We tagged 1161 today but price quickly reversed despite the good data today. As I'm typing this we are printing a daily swing low again. It's the 4th swing low in this intermediate decline. Last year the 4th swing low was working so hopefully this swing will not get erased.... Indicators All the indicators are showing to the upside. 1hr and 4hr charts are showing divergencies... MACD will cross over soon RSI left overbought SlowSToch is turning up TSI crossed over
LONG ENTRY The perfect entry was at 1161-1166 in the afternoon , but I still think entering here is not late as we have only 10$ behind us. If gold is still in a bull market we are going to print a higher high above 1375...
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bhowe
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Nice Apri, thanks for Sharing. Certainly feels like a bottom with the action right now.
Mannnassser
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What if FED hikes at .50 or .75 points instead of the expected .25 points ... Gold will be at 1045 again
Ronnee
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@Mannnassser, can not see anything but a token hike, as they have cornered themselves really,,anymore would just, cook , there economy over the top. I would imagine...interest rates have already increased with the trump hype...I feel India is having a big effect on gold at present.
Ronnee
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Hi APRi, have small entry 1162, however, with perhaps still good data to come, more downside is possible until NFP report, may bounce again before the FEDs maybe hike, then more downside, before we can be positive the bottom has been reached....maybe 1140-50 area...However, any entries from this point should be manageable for most players! Thanks for all your ideas, charts and thoughts..not many people, if any could pick what the FBI did pre election or the Indian PM did, day of US election!! Cheers ron
HlyonS
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Shall we wait for a double bottom at 1161-1166?
SeltyKnight
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I like your thoughts, I do think we are still in a bull market and will see higher highs sometime next year. We have NFP tomorrow and the rate hike decision coming up in a few weeks so it should be very volatile for gold. Also I see weakness and USD/JPY & USD, so we'll see how it plays out.
Agree with the thought that there is a temporary bottom for Gold at current levels but do not agree that we are in a Bull Mkt.
I do believe that Gold will get a short move up with in a week or so but can not believe a level as mentioned like 1375 or whatever ...
One should keep in mind that we r living in a world with fast moving events & uncertainties so why predict into long term future ... e.g. just look at what happened to the Oil price in just a matter of few days. None had predicted the same ... not even OPEC knew that they will be able to pull the deal ..
So, why not take small steps at a time ... and learn from those steps and build on it ... I mean one needs to learn to walk before learn to run ....
RAZRus
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@chinoo, Dude, check Arpi's ideas, he predicted oil price 2weeks ago! "LONG
OIL - Game of ranges" idea, with 2 possible scenarios and two of them took place and tradable!
what r u talking about?
NihalCassim
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hi Arpi, for my learning, if we assume this is the bottom, what signs/data would lead you to think this will be a quick recovery vs a u-shaped recovery like we saw last year which took about 3-4 months?