FED = FOMC FEDM = Minutes Market has forgotten about next week's FED meeting last week. Next week Monday and Tuesday it's time to focus on the rate decision again. In January and March gold printed its daily cycle low at the FOMC. So I see a good chance we are printing the DCL again around that date.
Will they hike again? I don't think so... The French election is a risk factor again for the EU and we saw last year before the Brexit the FED didn't touch the rates. Yellen mentioned at the FOMC meeting in 2016 June the possibility of a Brittish exit from the EU is enough stress for the strong USD , no need to make the markets more nervous with a rate hike. So next Wednesday it will be the same : they will not touch the rates before the french elections. What will happen to gold at the weekend is a different story. ( I'm 100% sure France will not leave the EU even if Le Pen wins...)
The last 3 days of the week ended with gold crawling on the 240 SMA . That moving average was important in the last few years. At the beginning of next week gold should head lower and break below the 240 SMA (green), the 200 SMA (red) and 50 EMA (blue) . My minimum target is the 100 EMA (purple) at 1240$. In the ideal scenario price should get close to the 500 SMA (orange) just like at the last 2 FED meetings. I don't think we will be able to break below it but we might get very close to that moving average before the next bounce.
Pattern wise it looks like a breakout of 1260 and a testback of that breakout. But as I'm watching my cycles it will be a false breakout . MACD printing divergencies and turning down. The RSI almost got overbought. It's turning up but it needs to go deep into oversold territory. So both indicators are showing that this decline is not over yet.
SHORT follow through idea. I don't recommend to short from here. We are already short in gold from a better entry price.
코멘트
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If we compare gold and silver gold is lagging...
코멘트
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코멘트
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Once gold breaks down the 1260 level it will do violently. I think today or tomorrow we will get this breakdown.
코멘트
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I told you this is coming.
코멘트
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I close 50% of the position here at 1252$. I will watch FOMC with 50% position.
코멘트
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We are getting late in this daily cycle. If we don't print the bottom today or tomorrow we will go down into the ICL in this daily cycle... But I think everybody will focus on the French elections so gold will pop after FOMC.
코멘트
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Closing 25% at 1247$
코멘트
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Closed the rest at 1250
매매 수동청산
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코멘트
graham.edwards84
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I'm going to disagree with you this time. I see 1310 range for the right shoulder of the current wave, then down to 1265 - 1270 and then a big move up to 1400 for a top. Look at USDJPY and you would have to believe that the pair will rally considerably higher from here and I do not see that happening yet. Just my opinion. I think that he pair will fall to 104-105 before rallying substantially somewhere around the end of June, so gold will continue an overall bullish trend until then.
chartwatchers
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@graham.edwards84, I always welcome the contrarian views. Can you post a chart ?
graham.edwards84
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@chartwatchers,
Something like this I think. Again, it's just my idea. I feel gold is really pushing back again the currency pair.
I also offer as evidence and direct you to March 7th when the 50 daily moving average crossed the 100 daily moving average and this bullish indicator coincided with a big move up for gold and now we have a similar situation with the 50 ascending through the 200 on the daily chart.
graham.edwards84
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@chartwatchers, Good call on your price target in the 1240 range. I'm expecting a bounce here also.
Hks6996
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Arpi, you are the gold man omg... I was not in this trade, but so wish I was... too busy, helping a sick friend with rare cancer... but I need to get but to my trading bad... missed so much money make opportunities
hasansahoglu
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@Hks6996, be with your friend, that's what matters. opportunities are endless in forex but friends and family not around all your life.
Hks6996
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@hasansahoglu, absolutely right... I need to find a way to cut my losses without losing so much money on my NUGT and JNGT... had a few windows to sell them, but missed them because my focus has been else where...
I so hope my friend gets better... we got him accepted on a clinical trial, but now he needs to wait 6 weeks because he needs radiation to hopefully shrink his cancer enough to start the trial... fingers crossed... poor guy, he is like a big brother I never had... :(
Bo
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You are like a razor, slicing and dicing, carving out nice chunks of meat profit. Good show~!~
OzSecureTrade
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Nice analysis, similar to my view here, I believe it may go up to 1269 max and down to 1264, 1250, 1241, 1236, 1227, 1220, 1213, and 1207.
Those are the weekly S/R.