Today on the daily chart we had a nothing day. As the doji shows direction is not decided yet... As I said on the hourly chart post gold's intermediate decline is starting uneasily... Bulls are still hoping buying every dip , posting into my posts, trying to convince me that I'm in the wrong direction. Shorts are nervous. Taking profit after every 5$ decline... :) WE finished the day at the level which could be a just pullback ( a testback of the breakout ). Timewise the case is that we started the decline but it's not enough to know we have to stay in position also.
So the next 1.5 months plan is unchanged. We are heading down to the 200 EMA in 2 steps.
But it seems to me there is one more test tomorrow at the NFP data... We have too many shorts and maybe not enough bulls yet... So tomorrow I'm waiting for a 2015-10-28 candlestick . It's a sweeper candlestick. First it pulls in the longs and stops out the shorts as the price almost running to new highs. But not touching the smartmoney brothers on the top where deline started. Shaky handed shorts stopping out, dumb money bulls jumping on board. And then comes the reversal. Stopped out shorts are left behind. Bulls are on board but wrong direction. And in 2-3 days - by next Tuesday- we are down to 1235$.
So we have to get prepared for this scenario as gold pops to 1300, even 1310 is not out of the table (but I don't really think we take out the evening star's top)
The other scenario that we are just rolling over with a solid decline . But that would be too easy...
코멘트
⋅
Unbelievable that the whole world is waiting for a number. Nothing is happening...
코멘트
⋅
Selling 50 XAUUSD in the metal trade at 1291.31
코멘트
⋅
Retail traders are taking up smartmoney's gold positions.
코멘트
⋅
SMartmoney selling dumb money buying. Watch dollar ! XAUUSD is turning down soon.
코멘트
⋅
411,545 commercial short contracts and Blees rating 0 . It's the 6th week that blees is at 0... Who knows what does it mean not long on the gold market. Evreybody and his dog with his grandpa is short in gold at the commercials. I haven't seen this number for 6 years. As soon as stocks start to rally ( I think we had a reversal today) with the surging dollar gold will suffer a hell of a decline.
6 years ago gold dropped 150 dollars in 2 weeks with these numbers.
코멘트
⋅
In the back is the dollar index. The buck was coming out of the lows... A decline from 1225 to 1075$ .
코멘트
Cuciu
⋅
I'm new to this, but fully agree with BetaIndex.
The price will rise again and hit the trend line at least once next week and that would be a good moment to sell..
On the long term, I would expect the price to continue to rise to 1350-1400 (old resistance level from July 2013 - July 2014) and settle there for a while. If it breaks it, the uptrend will continue.
Sakakikunmakio
⋅
U like a litte child.. Us dollar will be dumb... Nfp bad for usd// then we see bullish cndlestik @d1.. U know wht happened? It would be break out 1300.. No hike rate by the year
chartwatchers
⋅
The dollar was rallying after the NFP. Rally on bad news.
Google the meaning of it.
Saravan
⋅
Very Insightful.
Royal_Marq
⋅
I think gold will hit $1310 - $1320 by next week. Also the daily RSI almost hitting the over bought territory. I will take the trade when RSI will overbought at 77 to 80. Also waiting for another drag down before fed meeting. I am 80% sure Fed will not raise the interest rate on next meeting. Probably gold will hit almost $1400 by July second week. I am just little concern about my DUST position. It actually working in a reverse trend. I am hoping it will come back to good shape very soon.
chartwatchers
⋅
1310-20 is not out of the table...
But with the rallying dollar and soaring stock market it will be really hard for gold to run to new highs.
Money will flow out of the PM sector in the following 1.5 months.
1400$ is a little early by July , but for september we will be there.
Royal_Marq
⋅
Probably you right. How about DUST? Because I am not getting how it's movement really works.
pmcllc
⋅
I think they hedge funds are trying to make a buck by churning between the Dow and Gold.
Turestedt
⋅
Chartwatchers - You're the man! We are well positioned on this one. By the way, I do think I experienced the gold drop 6 years ago. It was the drop from around 1400 to 12 something right? I recall october or november sometime... just before the big run to the peak?
alanprotrader
⋅
Why these information is important to sell or buy Gold? What is that mean?
The price will rise again and hit the trend line at least once next week and that would be a good moment to sell..
On the long term, I would expect the price to continue to rise to 1350-1400 (old resistance level from July 2013 - July 2014) and settle there for a while. If it breaks it, the uptrend will continue.