Big players and banks are positioning in miners shorts and gold shorts. The small traders are concentrating on a trendline breakout which died out. It's true we broke the trendline and that could be the beginning of a run higher but we are in a rally mode for 6 months. There was simply too much time used for the first 2 daily cycles . And the first 2 daily cycle was weak. The after-election decline was too severe. Also the 2nd daily cycle's decline was strong. So even with a powerful rally in the 3rd daily cycle we just tagged the triangle upper trendline.
And a breakout in the 4th daily cycle.... It was obvious : it's a trap.
Today we tried to break above the trendline again but price dropped back to the neckline of the hourly pattern.
Gold is foredoomed to fall now. We are back in the triangle, the dollar is ready to rally and the euro is ready to fall...
I switched to Heikin Ashi candles. We will be falling at least till the first green candle. The declines in the Heikin Ashi candle chart were lasting longer and longer. The first was 3 days long, the second 10 and the third 16... This decline should last 20-25 days. So minimum 15 more days...
The target price counted from the pattern is at 1226. I think we will test back the previous DCL at 1213,5 and price will break below it and probably test the triangle's lower trendline.
That's not going to happen though. The Heiken Ashi chart looks perfect.
Red candle again.
And we need a panic selling at the end of this story.
Holding the short positions.
I don't think the decline is done yet.
Holding the shorts.
Bulls are clearly losing control.
And couldn't tag the 200 SMA on the hourly.
I'm adding to the short position here.
Will explain in a new idea.
Trendline tag, neckline testback etc...
The chance is pretty high that it was a bear flag - just like the bull flags in the uptrend - and we have 10-15 days to the downside from here...
I am just saying that you're too confident again. You would eventually hedge in the worst case, but others might lose substantial amounts.
Even that decline last yesr June had a failed daily cycle.
check rsi, macd
weekly candle close hammer
higher highs, higher lows
gold was having a target for the correction 1245