We've arrived to the first important test of the new bull market. The most important thing that we are still in the second intermediate cycle of this bull market. I know most of the bears think - especially the one who bjorned to be wild - this is the beginning of the end (of gold). But actually this only will be the end of the beginning. The decline we had in the last few weeks is shallow and slow. Miners and silver had a scary decline during the last few weeks but gold was only in a sideways consolidation. Despite the central banks' never ending interventions - dollar is near to yearly highs again gold had 40$ decline only. We could be at 1230$ just as in 02.11.2016 when the dollar was at the same level as on Friday... But we couldn't even break below the 20 EMA...
On Friday we finished the week on the 20 EMA. The weekly close was also at the new bull market's weekly trendline. No breakdown : just a close on the trendline. At the last bull market price broke below the 20 EMA and tagged the 30 EMA at the ICLs (blue arrows) . Also the 4 week RSI was tagging the oversold levels.
On Friday the 4 day RSI tagged the oversold levels. We might or might not break the 20 EMA and tag the 30 EMA during the next volatile week. But the downside is limited now. Even the FED has a surprise for us next Wednesday gold will not break below the 1270-80$ level.
And when gold finished this intervention fueled decline it will rally 50-60/week to 1550$.
코멘트
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As today is holiday in Japan, Draghi stayed alone with is intervention program on the planet. And gold is in a rally mode... Only Japan is out of the game. Thursday holiday in Japan again. So I think they've done the whole this week's intervention on Friday. And gold was only able to test the bottom of the consolidation. I just say again without these interventions gold would have gone nowhere down... With a 12% of a rate hike chance without the intervening Japan it will be hard to press gold below 1300$..
코멘트
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Today we had a swing on daily chart.
코멘트
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Tonight (EST) today early morning (GMT) we had a powerful intervention by BOJ at the announcement. Japan is really getting very busy with weakening the Yen.... But the intervention faded away quickly. And gold's breakdown was very fast it recovered in an hour.
코멘트
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Here is my favorite "who is intervening today" picture. Japan is off to go a holiday and their intervention was not enough. ECB stayed alone. If the FED has a dovish day with no rate hike Draghi will sweat blood to keep the Eur weak today... I think he will fail.
코멘트
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Gold might be pricing the weakening dollar scenario.
코멘트
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5 days of decline ereased in half day.
코멘트
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I hope Bjorn had a stop.
코멘트
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Check out this... Holiday in Japan no intervention. I was so sure this is going to happen. They are not intervening the yen ( blue candles)
코멘트
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Yellen: "signals closer to hike" LOL At the beginning of this year they wanted 4 hikes. Now they can do only 2. But let's say the truth they wont hike at the US elections. So "There can be only one...." I just wonder when the dollar longs will realize that something is wrong???!!!
코멘트
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Intervention failed. The dollar finally doing its job: it's falling.
코멘트
Nightstar
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Bjorn doesn't need a stop Arpi.. He's Superman :)
chartwatchers
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lol
TheZabisyu
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Hello, Arpi!
Don't Forget about our Chamapgne in Studio 69. KEEP The word!! :D
I am ready for this week!
I hope HFTM gives me long before FOMC...
I made some educational idea as well... hope it helps my Followers..
Studio 69.. Riga! When Gold is at 1400!
Cheers!
olegleo
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When? :) I'll book a ticket. :)
TheZabisyu
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When Gold is at 1400, Arpi said he come over and celebrate with me, some champagne and stuff at Studio 69 ( most expensive place in Riga.)
bertcoin
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Back in the green on NUGT on a 19% move today. Last Friday was well past my mental stop loss "believing" in the bull market. Glad I listened to you Arpi and hung with it. Three other cyclical/technicians that have earned my respect were all short targeting below the 1302 DCL down to 1230. None of them go as broad as you to use data on the currency wars and politics to influence the cycles. I think that gives you a big advantage. Thanks!!!
Bearbud
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Hey BC, I still have $100 to go on NUGT what do you think the TP is on Gold and NUGT?
bertcoin
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"And when gold finished this intervention fueled decline it will rally 50-60/week to 1550." - Arpi. I might take some profits before then, as we're on day 14 of the 3rd daily cycle. IMHO if it breaks through the previous high and down trend line around 1350, there's nothing stopping it from a big right translated cycle with a mild DCL. If Arpi has the DXY pegged right, then boom! So I'll be watching carefully at 1350.
chartwatchers
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Thats right. I think we will print a higher high at least. But how far this rally will go we cant tell right now.
Maybe only 1380-90. Maybe 1450. Maybe 1500...
If we have 3 more days like today then it can be 1500 easily in 2 weeks.
I say again : dollar is the key. if it breaks the trendline the dollar bulls will be toasted and everything is going up:
oil, stocks, gold.
I think thats a perfect scenario before the US elections.
AhmedKhattab
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If it reaches 1380-90 we should sell or keep our gold until watching the US elections.