XAUUSD – Early-week continuation buys, targeting Fibonacci ...

✨ XAUUSD – Early-week continuation buys, targeting Fibonacci extension zones

Gold enters the new week under a very special market backdrop:

+6.0% in November, marking the 4th consecutive bullish month.

This follows +3.7% in October and +11.9% in September.

Year-to-date, gold is up about 60.7%, on track to record its strongest yearly gain in nearly five decades.

With a market that is literally making history, I am not trying to pick the top. I continue to prioritise trend-following buys, and only consider quick counter-trend sells at extended Fibonacci levels.

🎯 Scenario 1 – BUY THE DIP in line with the bullish trend

Buy: 4,194 – 4,195
SL: 4,185
TP: 4,210 – 4,235 – 4,270 – 4,295

The 4,194–4,195 zone on H1 is the VAL / lower boundary of the volume distribution after a strong impulsive move. It aligns with short-term structural support. If price pulls back cleanly into this area and forms a solid rejection candle, I prefer adding BUY positions with the prevailing trend.

Take-profit structure:

4,210 – 4,235: Near-term resistance zone, also around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

4,270 – 4,295: Major extension zone 2.618 Fibo, where selling pressure and short-term reversals may become stronger.

🔁 Scenario 2 – Short-term SELL at Fibo 2.618 extension

Sell: 4,285 – 4,287
SL: 4,295
TP: 4,262 – 4,240 – 4,210

This is a counter-trend setup, suitable only for small-lot scalping trades.

If price is pushed into the 4,285–4,287 region (near the 2.618 Fibo extension) but fails to sustain momentum—leaving long wicks or clear bearish reversal signals—I will consider SELLing back toward 4.26x – 4.24x, and deeper to 4.210.

1. Technical View from the Charts

The trend on H1/H4 remains strongly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows, and price respecting the upward channel.

The latest impulse has already extended above the 1.618 Fibo, now targeting the 2.618 extension around 4.28x–4.29x.

Below, VAL around 4.19x is the first support; deeper lies sell-side liquidity near 4.16x, where many buy-side stops are clustered (only relevant for deeper intraday corrections).

Given this structure, every pullback into support is treated as a trend-continuation opportunity, not a reversal signal.

2. Market Sentiment & Action Plan

After months of strong gains, the market is showing clear FOMO behaviour. This is why I avoid buying directly at resistance and instead wait for price to return to accepted value zones (VAL/POC) for better risk-to-reward entries.

The SELL setup is only a secondary scenario, triggered when price reaches a high Fibo extension and fails—usually leading to heavy profit-taking from earlier buyers.

✅ My Trading Plan
Primary Setup

BUY 4,194–4,195
SL 4,185
TP 4,210 – 4,235 – 4,270 – 4,295

Secondary Setup

SELL 4,285–4,287 (only with a clean bearish reversal signal)
SL 4,295
TP 4,262 – 4,240 – 4,210

Risk per scenario remains capped at 1–2% of the account.
No widening of stop-losses, and I stay out if market structure breaks.