Gold has broken the €1245 resistance and has tested Fib 0.786 resistance at €1273.- Sentiment is bullish but has still not reached resistance levels. Also ADX shows that there is still strong bullish power which could lead to short-term raise in Gold price to the 0.888 Fib level (€1322 - 1327).
The Dow is currently trying to break through it´s overhead trend-line resistance €27420-27460. If the Dow does not have sufficient strength to brake trough this resistance line then this could lead to an extended rally in Gold.
However, latest COT report indicates that commercial traders are already net short and that small / retail traders are net long which is a bearish signal. Next few days will tell us in which direction the DJI is going and what that means for the Gold price.
Short-term I´m bullish/neutral, intermediate term bearish and long-term bullish on Gold.
코멘트
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Sentiment: Hot/Cold Gold Contract GOLDM (MCX): HIGH (Expiry: 05-Aug-2019)
COT Report: GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. (CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) CFTC Code: #088691 Open Interest: 598,977 Total Changes: -6,972 Total Traders: 382 Swap Dealers (long/short): 19%/40.5% Non-reportable Positions (long/short): 11.1%/5.5%
Swap dealers / investment banks are net SHORT (#088691, Positions as of 2019-07-09)!
코멘트
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Hot/Cold Gold Contract GOLDM (MCX): HIGH (Expiry: 05-Aug-2019)
COT Report: GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. (CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) CFTC Code: #088691 Open Interest: 563,298 Total Changes: -53,561 Total Traders: 358 Swap Dealers (long/short): 18.4%/45.6% Non-reportable Positions (long/short): 11.4%/5.4%
Swap dealers / investment banks are net SHORT (#088691, Positions as of 2019-07-30)!
Shorts pos of swap dealers have increased and long positions of dump money increased.
Last week I visited the gold dealer and sold a little bit of my physical gold holdings near ATH price (EUR).
But first I asked the dealer about the sentiment. He told me that there is no clear trend to see yet. Some people sell and some buy which means there is still no gold rush / hype.
For this reason I only sold 1oz. Obviously from sentiment point of view there is much more upside potential! However, this week we are at the all-time-high in EUR chart, and therefore I will sell at least one bullion this week.
I think a healthy correction is overdue!
This mean a strong pullback is likely!