My Iron Condor Hunter script indicated a potential iron condor for this instrument for the 12 - 23 range. Let's check for the best setup for this signal.
(1) Basic TA to background check
After a quick TA I judged it too risky, because it limiting the downside potential correction. The script indicated good ranges in the past 4 years, but now I'm a little bit hesitating about the downside move limit. The script shows me 12$ as secury bottom target in the next 30 days, but the lowest low may be ~10$, based the green trendline
(2) Murrey Math levels
-1/8 and +1/8 are used for some kind of attempt to catch a trend reversal. -1/8 is an extreme support level during a bearish trend , while +1/8 is an extreme resistance during a bullish tendency. A test of these lines indicates that the current trend is weakening. As a rule, the price doesn’t revers here and starts corrections towards 0/8 and 8/8. After that, the previous trend resumes.
On the weekly perfectly fit to my Murrey Math Lines Auto +1/8 script.
(3) Daily divergence
Divergence on daily chart , without any more comment..... Indicated local correction. Breaked down my custom oscillator => correction validated.
CONCLUSION:
Modifying the strategy from the originally planned Iron Condor to Vertical Spread.
Sell 1 X Apr16' 21 call Buy 1 X Apr16' 23 call
Max profit: ...... $80 Max loss: ......... $120 IVR: ................... 18.3 Probability of Profit: 73% Expiry: .............. 45days
Strategy: Short call vertical
[u]Risk management: [/u]I'm closing the trade immediately - if the daily bar closing outside my strikes - and I'm cutting my loss. (no matter what I'm believing)- usually I'm losing mutch less than my max profit in this case. Danger zone starts at 20.28$
[u]Profit management:[/u] I'm sending an order at the 50% of max profit, immediately after my position opened - as usually.
코멘트
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Exciting price action today. Danger zone reached.
At this moment the potential loss if I would close the trade now: 62$ (max profit 80$)
Let's see tomorrow!
매매 수동청산
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Big move upside today. I'm not risknig any more move to the upside. That was 102$ loss. (Original profit target was 80$).
Sold 0.80cr originally, bought back today for 0.182db
@ccb161, OMG, of course not! Yesterday I've updated with my close! I've cut the loss:
"21 hours ago
Trade closed manually: Big move upside today.
I'm not risknig any more move to the upside.
That was 102$ loss. (Original profit target was 80$).
Sold 0.80cr originally, bought back today for 0.182db"