Of all the recession indicators, this is the best. And as you can see, if it drops more, then we would have known that IT HAS ARRIVED.
Once it drops below, it would be deflationary. Many would have thought that the FED might raise 25bps next month. But I do NOT think that would be the good idea.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
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Just to add - if you are into stuffs like gold and stocks, you better be careful :)
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Just a bit more :) Anyone who is serious in FX trading MUST appreciate and understand this and its consequences.
Previously, many had thought and still is - that Yellen is going to issue lots of UST, which means YIELD would go up. Perhaps we may need to rethink this and be prepared for what is to come.
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OPEC+ has reached a deal to lower its oil output target for 2024 by 1.4 million barrels a day.
Looks like OIL is going to trend lower. And we should know what this means :)
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Look at XAU. Hahaha....... And the main stream media is so hyped up about it previously. And as I said, DOLLAR BULL RUN may be starting. Want to buy more gold???
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It seems the timing is perfect. Oil has now reach an inflection point @ $95.30
Lets see if it can still go UP. If it does, it is risk on game, just like bond yield keeps going UP because no one is afraid of recession - YET.
Good luck.
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It seems price bounced off quite perfectly at $95.30 as anticipated. At this moment, the MARKET is thinking and assessing the situation. All we need to do is to make sure our trades are in sync.
Going UP means more time for risk assets. Going DOWN means time is up.
Oil tells us a lot about the economy that we do not get from Main Stream Media (MSM). If it fails to move above, then it might be an indication of weaker economic conditions to come.
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It seems OIL bounced @ $95.30 as anticipated. Selling there makes a lot of money by now. The important thing is that the MARKET is very cautious and this means risk assets are at RISK. USDJPY would likely FALL. EURUSD would likely rise so that you know what.
The interesting thing to see now is how BOND yield would react. But I would say that even it would have to move along with OIL.