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Kumowizard
2015년 4월 10일 오전 9시 40분

WTI - The real value support is lower at 48,10-48,70 

Crude Oil (WTI)FXCM

설명

We can not exclude a short term pop up from the 50+ level in WTI, but I think the better risk reward buy area is not here, but rather in the 48,10-48,70 zone.

Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is long term bearish, but Price has been consolidating in a wide range in the last 3 months
- Heikin Ashi setup is bullish, but haDelta reached an extreme high, and Pit seems the weekly close will be below the range top ard 52.
- This range may stay for few more weeks. Lower supports are: Tenkan Sen at 48,05 and range bottom at 43,65

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup slowly changes to neutral/bullish. Kumo is thin both under spot price and in the future.
- Heikin Ashi signal is bearish again, but we don't know how long the the dip will last.
- I think Price has more room to drop towards the stronger support, which is at 48,10-48,70 area where we have the horizontal line, Kijun Sen and Senkou B line. In that region we can start to watch for bullish signals again.
Of course we can not exclude that Price pops from here, but I think 100 MA has to flatten a bit more, before Price can break through it on the next bullish run. So on the upper side we still have to watch 52-53.

4H:
- Ichimoku setup is turning to weak bearish. there is some minor trend support ard 50,11, but if that will not hold, price will drop sharply further to next support ard 100 MA and horizontal key levels.
- Heikin Ashi signal is bearish. Short term moves also depend on the USD strength.

All in all the braves can try a long here at 50+ level with tight stop. But given the higher time frame, I would wait a bit, try to buy either at the daily support, or a lot higher but with more confidence above 52, when I see a daily bullish signal.
코멘트
Mickette
I have noticed the MA200 has been a good reference on the 2H chart in the past. At the moment 48.50 is the target price. But the present ascending trend line is very decisive for the bullish trend that has been put in place since 42.00
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