Why I am going short on USDCHF? Well first of all it breaks below its upward trend line, the trend line was in place since Oct 2018 and now after almost 9 months price breaks below that level, it already had a pull back and now ready to go lower. The second reason is from price action point of view market is clearly making lower highs and lower lows which is the simplest way of indicating a down trend. 3rd signal comes from Moving Averages . They are in an order of low to high. You can see the shortest EMA (20) is below EMA50 and 50 is below 100. This is another definition for down trend, market is bouncing and touching its EMA20 every time, just before it drops further. Finally fundamentally we will see a rate cut in USD soon , most probably in July, which makes USD weaker and facilitates the USDCHF down trend even further.
If price comes up to 1.0035 this analysis will be voided. Otherwise every up movement is a good chance to go short. Specially if it goes up to touch its EMA20 again around 0.9850 it will be a good chance then to go short.
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The trade went to a small profit but after almost 3 weeks when it wasn't able to proceed further, we closed the position manually with 70pips loss around 0.9900