There is potentially a big, multi-week down trend in USD/CAD. Immediate and key supports are at 1.3050 and 1.2950. Above 1.3180 negates the call. Once 1.2950 breaks, USD/CAD is going to fall off the cliff. Many other catalysts are aligning to support this view: potential resolution to NAFTA, increase chance of a BOC rate hike after some strong data, continued up trend in crude oil etc.
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USD/CAD has broken the key 1.2950 support. Although there has been no sign of stop loss triggering, not much downside acceleration so far, I believe the stage is set for further falls.
Yesterday’s partial US-Mexico trade agreement, followed by Canada resuming talks today, were main reasons for the fall from 1.3040 to 1.2950.
But other catalysts also seem good for CAD: crude oil is rising near $70 again. The next push could be from Canada GDP data tomorrow (Wed). Looks like a strong data will seal the call for a BOC rate hike in Oct!