Socialist US President, Donald Trump, is begging congress to hand out $2,000 to every man, woman, and child in the country. This is an extraordinary thing to witness from a so-called Republican President, who, by core party value, should be both socially, and fiscally conservative. The question I keep asking myself is this: If $2,000 is going to be better than $600, then why not make it $1 Million? Why not pass a $25 Trillion stimulus proposal, then there's no need to worry about GDP next year, right? Why tax anyone ever again? Why should anyone look for a job? Why should any money flow back to the government if it grows on trees? *Pulls out a chunk of hair*
This morning's data was mixed with personal spending, and personal income coming in weaker than expected, while jobless claims beat expectations, but remains elevated at over 800k. We still have over 20 Million Americans on some form of unemployment. Continuing claims stand at 5.34MM, and later on this morning, we'll see new home sales, consumer sentiment, and crude and NG inventory prints.
As we discussed yesterday, there was a strong possibility (you know with all the fraud and ponzi behavior by centrals banks and governments alike), that we might gap up this morning. So said, so done. They gapped us up to the key 368 level, where the 50MA on the hourly is sitting, possibly to induce a last minute 'Santa Rally.' At the moment, it appears the bulls are getting yet another rejection at this resistance level. We'll see how the day progresses - I assume investors are feeling great about how much Trump loves them. Mean while, his properties all over the globe are doubling in value, along with all the rest of his assets, and all he has to do is perpetually dilute your hard earned cash.
I appreciate your time today guys. If you enjoyed the analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
코멘트
⋅
Bears just showed up to smack the bulls back below the 50MA on the hourly:
코멘트
⋅
New home sales are in and it's ugly. 841k vs 990k exp. Confidence is high though, so that's something...
코멘트
⋅
Vix is back to a 22 handle, but looking resilient:
코멘트
⋅
10Y yield is up notably today, and looking ripe for a breakout. We're sitting just north of the 50MA on the weekly, and in arms reach of 1%:
코멘트
⋅
Seeing strong resistance around 369. Several tests without success. The bulls have captured the 50MA on the hourly, though, and are happy Santa is coming:
코멘트
⋅
View from the 1m. I'm looking for a spike in volume here as we potantially see a break above the greenline, or a strong rejection:
코멘트
⋅
Got to take off early today folks, I have some errands to run. I should be back by the close hopefully, but I might not make it. I hope you guys have a great rest of the day, and thanks for your time. Cheers! Michael.
코멘트
⋅
I'm back! Looks like 369 is still holding up as resistance, and is creating some pressure here for the bulls into the close:
코멘트
⋅
If the 50MA on the hourly (368.70), breaks, we're going to see a very bearish close...
코멘트
⋅
Wowzers. That was an ugly close! Once we lost the 368 level it was a cliff side. Time to drink whiskey, and day dream of a limit down market soon. I appreciate the awesome conversations today, and thanks for all the love. We live to fight another day. Cheers! Michael.
코멘트
⋅
Trump apparently veto'd the defense bill. That's something he's been talking (threatening) about lately. Markets clearly didn't like the news.
please look at it from both bull and bear perspective. it seems like you are only "posting" bearish view and are kinda stuck in that single perspective.
it's going to melt up slowly short term until it hits 400. your "368 is in history book" quote from last post is nonsense, and i can promise you this will hit 370+ easy by eow. why? it's simple, all the money is going to flow into the market. there's no stopping it. if there's money printing, it'll go up. who knows how much fed will print? investors can't predict that. might as well have money in the market than anything else. what? have cash? dollar is devaluing. what? have real-estate? with this unemployment # and shitty economy to come? please.... money may continue to print as much as they want it to print. powell even said that over and over again. they said they will keep doing it for years until economy stabilizes and will intervene. what are you going to do? tell the fed to stop printing money? you can't. it's great that you are expecting the "CRASH" but you need to post bullish point of view as well. that way you are making "informed" decision and not biased decision. just my two cents.
Hedge_Of_The_World
⋅
@wamsoonstudio, Thanks for the comment! My regular readers understand my bearish thesis very well. This is not a day trade, so no, I'm not bullish. This is a swing trade which could take 3 months. You're also miss quoting me, I never said 368 is history. Here's exacty what I said, "Absent a gap up overnight, 368 is in the history books." And what happened? They gapped us up, and bulls broke through the 50MA on the hourly. I appreciate the fact that you want to see a bullish perspective on US markets, but at the moment, I don't have one to share, and I don't believe anything the FED or the government says. They're doing everything we were taught not to do. Having said that, maybe you're right and I'm wrong, and that's the beauty of this community. I appreciate your perspective, and all the valuable insights you shared today, my friend. Cheers!
wamsoonstudio
⋅
@Hedge_Of_The_World, thank you! i didn't mean to come off in a weird way or anything, i just wanted to hear your bullish view if you had any. I like to hear both side. and you are right, i stand corrected on the quote. i didn't know you didn't have any bullish view. i will continue to follow your view, because it is straight up fundamental and i really do enjoy it. keep us posted in the future as well
Hedge_Of_The_World
⋅
@wamsoonstudio, Thank you, I appreciate you, my friend. I'm excited to see how things turn out heading into the close of trade tomorrow. That was a pretty ugly close, but buying the close and selling the open has been the name of the game lately. There's a very good chance we rally again overnight, but Trump just threw a serious curve ball at the market.
arronpina
⋅
🗑
Vixtine
⋅
@wamsoonstudio, Welp...EOW is here and SPY did not close at or above $370. The one thing we all know for certain about the market is the no-one knows what is going to happen next. No one can make promises...it's not that simple. Everyone seems to think that there is no end to the money printing, interest rates will stay near zero until 2024 and therefore the market can only go up, up and up. But what happens if the narrative doesn't play out like everyone thinks? What happens when smart money wants to move to the other side of the boat because they realize the gains in growth/tech are limited? In my opinion that is the short term major risk in this market and I don't think the possible short term gains outweigh this risk. Look at what happened to BABA today...any sort of near term bad news can spiral very quickly to the downside. SPY might melt up slowly to $400 but do you really think smart money won't sell before that price point...don't you think smart money will move to safety before the price that everyone thinks will be the market top? Remember, smart money never sells at the top and never buys at the bottom. It seems to me that for the last 6 weeks smart money has been selling into the strength which is why the market has not catapulted to outer space based upon the amazing news of the vaccine and more money printing. I think @Hedge_Of_The_World is spot on in his analysis of the technicals & fundamentals. I think his short term view will come to fruition over the coming months but then again no one knows for certain what will happen next in the market so it's always good to hear everyone's viewpoints.
Hedge_Of_The_World
⋅
@happyCloud1537, I think you're absolutely right, and I couldn't have said it better myself. The smart money bought time. The FED is removing some of the risk, yes. But, I just read i a recent report that it's now taking over $7 of debt to produce just $1 of GDP growth. Let's keep playing this game, and see what happens. Lol.
VolkerRules
⋅
Lol I love the sarcasm. This Santa rally is as fake as Santa itself. I’m just waiting for some real news to pop burst the bubble. Whatever it takes but pop this massive Ponzi. The reversal of screwing the markets will be disastrous. I don’t sound to be mean but the la la land where the market is at now the power plug will be pulled in a flash any moment
Appreciate your work my friend. Keep it up.
PreferredStonk
⋅
@VolkerRules, I don't think it will work. We could get another Sept / Late October plunge, but the sentiment is just too high. This is a bubble that's being inflated by the Fed. It's not going to behave as normal.
Optimism + money supply = rising floor.
Hedge_Of_The_World
⋅
@presstrade, You know it buddy. Infinity is hard to beat. But, they've been running this ponzi for a long time. I think corporations have seen maybe a 35% increase in revenue since 2008. That's horrible growth and its only getting worse and more concentrated. At some point we have to stop adding more debt just to tread water. It's crazy that we're seeing such illogical solutions presented. The wealthy are very quiet right now.
it's going to melt up slowly short term until it hits 400. your "368 is in history book" quote from last post is nonsense, and i can promise you this will hit 370+ easy by eow. why? it's simple, all the money is going to flow into the market. there's no stopping it. if there's money printing, it'll go up. who knows how much fed will print? investors can't predict that. might as well have money in the market than anything else. what? have cash? dollar is devaluing. what? have real-estate? with this unemployment # and shitty economy to come? please.... money may continue to print as much as they want it to print. powell even said that over and over again. they said they will keep doing it for years until economy stabilizes and will intervene. what are you going to do? tell the fed to stop printing money? you can't. it's great that you are expecting the "CRASH" but you need to post bullish point of view as well. that way you are making "informed" decision and not biased decision. just my two cents.