Granolabar's Gap and Crap principles TESTED (2/26 Trade Recap)
Introduction
In this post, I explain how I utilized the Gap and Crap principles to trade SPY on February 26th, 2021.
Recently, I made a post titled "Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)." The post is linked below. In it, I outlined my strategy for trading gap downs. I highly recommend you read that post before this one to understand the references I am making.
In the post, I detailed a specific way to trade gap downs using a system of candles and EMAs. The most important part of the strategy is not necessarily the gap down aspect but the conditions I used to determine entries. Specifically:
--------
"To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here.
Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles.
Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs
to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall."
--------
I will proceed by explaining my thoughts on exactly what was going as I was watching the market.
(Note: stops at entry means that I set a stop loss at the price I originally purchased the option for, meaning that it will sell for breakeven price. This is important later on.)
Trade 1:
After getting on Tradingview in the morning and opening up the 5 minute SPY chart, I quickly noticed that SPY did not move at all overnight. Despite the lack of a gap, we could still trade with similar principles. I first drew the resistance at premarket high (yellow) and premarket low (blue) as well as a minor support (white). Identifying these support and resistance levels, as well as any applicable trendiness, are an important part to trading successfully. Keep in mind that the cleaner these lines are, the better they will act as critical levels.
The first few candles after market-open were just chopping between the minor support line and the premarket high; nothing closed above or below either, so there was nothing to be done there. Do not force a play!!! You do not always have to be doing something in the market. Oftentimes sitting on your hands is the best thing to do.
The next candle is when I went on high alert mode. It ended up not only closing under the minor support from premarket (that happened to hold for the first 20 minutes of the trading day), but it also closed below the 50 EMA. At this point, I was just waiting for the next candle which immediately pushed below the low of the first candle, giving the entry signal (Scenario 1). For this play specifically, I kept my stop loss at the premarket high (good resistance) and my target was the premarket low since there wasn’t any major support until then. Once SPY hit the premarket low, I scaled out most of the position and left stops at entry for the rest.
Trade 2
The next play came immediately after when the following candle closed right below the premarket low. This candle was followed by a slight pullback, so my conditions for entry changed to a new candle closing below the previous low (Scenario 2). To remind myself, I marked the bottom of the break candle with a white line. This image was from that moment and shows exactly what I was thinking (I don't have the replay feature for any timeframe less than the daily).
A few candles later, a candle closed under the break low. This marked the entry of a short position, with the stop loss set at the premarket low (blue line) since it previously acted as a critical level.
I decided to start scaling out after seeing a small inside bar green candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. Since I took profit on part of the position, I made sure to set stops at entry for the remaining position. This ensured that the play finished green; it is not worth it to risk the remaining position going negative and cancelling out the gains. If the market takes another turn down from there, just consider reentering a new position. I will continue reiterating this concept since it is crucial for this fast paced trading style.
Trade 3
After exiting trade 2, I did not play the break of the premarket low from the bottom up, but it would have been a good scalp also. Theoretically speaking, this was how it would have played out if the rules were followed.
The play I did take, however, was the break of the premarket high a little later. Again similar principles: closed above the line, the next candle immediately pushed higher (Scenario 1), and the stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 cloud on the 1 minute chart. In this play, I scaled out due to a red inside bar; again, I left stops at entry after scaling out the first time to ensure the play stayed profitable.
Trade 4
This trade was a slight change of pace; I ended up playing a falling wedge breakout with the same principles. I saw that SPY was forming a clean wedge with the top and bottom trend lines both having 3 solid touches each. The plan was to wait for a break of the 50 EMA (top of the blue cloud in this case) since it typically acts as a support/resistance. The stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 ema cloud on the 1 minute chart, and the price targets were the white and yellow lines from premarket. As soon as it hit the first price target, I scaled out half the position and set stops at entry to lock in gains. The rest were sold at the second price target since the stops were not triggered beforehand.
Right at breakout view:
Nearing PT 2, premarket highs:
To play devil's advocate on my own plan, I am asking myself why I did not sell the position at the 2:44 PM ET 1 minute bar (the 13:44 bar on my chart above). The candle was fully below the 34/50 EMA cloud and had pushed below the previous "break" candle's low for a second. While those are valid points, it did not satisfy my stop loss conditions. I wait for the second candle after the “break candle” to close below the first candle's low on the 1 minute, which this candle did not. Additionally, it ended up closing as a hammer which is typically a bullish sign.
After that fourth play, I did not take any more positions for the day. Typically, the last 30-45 minutes of the day are very volatile, especially on a Friday, and it can be very risky trading in that environment. The options that I typically play expire within an hour of close; any misplay will lead to 50%+ losses instantly. However, if I am in a position that goes into the last 30-45 minutes of the day, I will not close it just because it hit that time of the day.
Conclusion:
I hope you enjoyed this post; it may have been a little lengthy again, but I wanted to detail exactly how I used the principles that I devised to trade.
There are 3 key takeaways:
1. The candle stick rules I use to decide when to enter a trade is a good way to catch breakouts while minimizing fakeout risk. It may mean that your entry is not exactly the first bar of the breakout, but the additional safety will help the majority of the time.
2. The rules I devised in scenario 1 and 2 are not limited to Gap and Crap setups. I will use them on whatever a clear breakout opportunity presents itself, including ascending triangles, bull flags, bull pennants, symmetrical triangles, falling wedges, cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, etc.
3. Always make sure you set stops at entry if you reach a take profit level and sell a portion of your contracts.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to read all of them :)
Have a great day and I wish you well.
-Granolabar
In this post, I explain how I utilized the Gap and Crap principles to trade SPY on February 26th, 2021.
Recently, I made a post titled "Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)." The post is linked below. In it, I outlined my strategy for trading gap downs. I highly recommend you read that post before this one to understand the references I am making.
In the post, I detailed a specific way to trade gap downs using a system of candles and EMAs. The most important part of the strategy is not necessarily the gap down aspect but the conditions I used to determine entries. Specifically:
--------
"To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here.
Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles.
Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs
to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall."
--------
I will proceed by explaining my thoughts on exactly what was going as I was watching the market.
(Note: stops at entry means that I set a stop loss at the price I originally purchased the option for, meaning that it will sell for breakeven price. This is important later on.)
Trade 1:
After getting on Tradingview in the morning and opening up the 5 minute SPY chart, I quickly noticed that SPY did not move at all overnight. Despite the lack of a gap, we could still trade with similar principles. I first drew the resistance at premarket high (yellow) and premarket low (blue) as well as a minor support (white). Identifying these support and resistance levels, as well as any applicable trendiness, are an important part to trading successfully. Keep in mind that the cleaner these lines are, the better they will act as critical levels.
The first few candles after market-open were just chopping between the minor support line and the premarket high; nothing closed above or below either, so there was nothing to be done there. Do not force a play!!! You do not always have to be doing something in the market. Oftentimes sitting on your hands is the best thing to do.
The next candle is when I went on high alert mode. It ended up not only closing under the minor support from premarket (that happened to hold for the first 20 minutes of the trading day), but it also closed below the 50 EMA. At this point, I was just waiting for the next candle which immediately pushed below the low of the first candle, giving the entry signal (Scenario 1). For this play specifically, I kept my stop loss at the premarket high (good resistance) and my target was the premarket low since there wasn’t any major support until then. Once SPY hit the premarket low, I scaled out most of the position and left stops at entry for the rest.
Trade 2
The next play came immediately after when the following candle closed right below the premarket low. This candle was followed by a slight pullback, so my conditions for entry changed to a new candle closing below the previous low (Scenario 2). To remind myself, I marked the bottom of the break candle with a white line. This image was from that moment and shows exactly what I was thinking (I don't have the replay feature for any timeframe less than the daily).
A few candles later, a candle closed under the break low. This marked the entry of a short position, with the stop loss set at the premarket low (blue line) since it previously acted as a critical level.
I decided to start scaling out after seeing a small inside bar green candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. Since I took profit on part of the position, I made sure to set stops at entry for the remaining position. This ensured that the play finished green; it is not worth it to risk the remaining position going negative and cancelling out the gains. If the market takes another turn down from there, just consider reentering a new position. I will continue reiterating this concept since it is crucial for this fast paced trading style.
Trade 3
After exiting trade 2, I did not play the break of the premarket low from the bottom up, but it would have been a good scalp also. Theoretically speaking, this was how it would have played out if the rules were followed.
The play I did take, however, was the break of the premarket high a little later. Again similar principles: closed above the line, the next candle immediately pushed higher (Scenario 1), and the stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 cloud on the 1 minute chart. In this play, I scaled out due to a red inside bar; again, I left stops at entry after scaling out the first time to ensure the play stayed profitable.
Trade 4
This trade was a slight change of pace; I ended up playing a falling wedge breakout with the same principles. I saw that SPY was forming a clean wedge with the top and bottom trend lines both having 3 solid touches each. The plan was to wait for a break of the 50 EMA (top of the blue cloud in this case) since it typically acts as a support/resistance. The stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 ema cloud on the 1 minute chart, and the price targets were the white and yellow lines from premarket. As soon as it hit the first price target, I scaled out half the position and set stops at entry to lock in gains. The rest were sold at the second price target since the stops were not triggered beforehand.
Right at breakout view:
Nearing PT 2, premarket highs:
To play devil's advocate on my own plan, I am asking myself why I did not sell the position at the 2:44 PM ET 1 minute bar (the 13:44 bar on my chart above). The candle was fully below the 34/50 EMA cloud and had pushed below the previous "break" candle's low for a second. While those are valid points, it did not satisfy my stop loss conditions. I wait for the second candle after the “break candle” to close below the first candle's low on the 1 minute, which this candle did not. Additionally, it ended up closing as a hammer which is typically a bullish sign.
After that fourth play, I did not take any more positions for the day. Typically, the last 30-45 minutes of the day are very volatile, especially on a Friday, and it can be very risky trading in that environment. The options that I typically play expire within an hour of close; any misplay will lead to 50%+ losses instantly. However, if I am in a position that goes into the last 30-45 minutes of the day, I will not close it just because it hit that time of the day.
Conclusion:
I hope you enjoyed this post; it may have been a little lengthy again, but I wanted to detail exactly how I used the principles that I devised to trade.
There are 3 key takeaways:
1. The candle stick rules I use to decide when to enter a trade is a good way to catch breakouts while minimizing fakeout risk. It may mean that your entry is not exactly the first bar of the breakout, but the additional safety will help the majority of the time.
2. The rules I devised in scenario 1 and 2 are not limited to Gap and Crap setups. I will use them on whatever a clear breakout opportunity presents itself, including ascending triangles, bull flags, bull pennants, symmetrical triangles, falling wedges, cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, etc.
3. Always make sure you set stops at entry if you reach a take profit level and sell a portion of your contracts.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to read all of them :)
Have a great day and I wish you well.
-Granolabar
