I think we'll see a retracement next, but I'm not sure about calling for a downtrend in the longer term here. Although fundamentals favor a rally overall, uncertainty over many global events, and proximity to the end of the year, might trigger profit taking, which would drive SPX lower, at least to 2170. If this level doesn't hold, we might test the linear regression channel support, and possibly lower levels, but it's hard to say before hand. It's safer to simply focus on reacting to the key levels and price action in the present.
If we don't drop under the election's open, or wost, under the election's daily low, I wouldn't worry too much, but for now, I remain vigilant. I'm shorting a few stocks, booking profits in some longs, and trading the risk off leg using FX and commodities mostly. Shorting SPX is valid, to a certain extent, but there are better vehicles to trade this move. Good luck, and watch the key levels on chart to pick the bottom here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
코멘트
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If we don't break down and accelerate tomorrow, sellers have failed, and we can expect more sideways/up action.
We can fire another short term uptrend signal here soon, as long as above this blue line.
코멘트
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Pullback started. If anyone shorted some of the stocks I mentioned, you'd be in some profit. SPY wasn't viable using a stop loss, but it's ok. I prefer to short individual stocks.
A pullback might not happen, and indeed we might go sideways for a while. I prefer a pullback and a violent rally towards January though. :)
IvanLabrie
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@lencanoot, who doesn't? :p
I want to reenter SPY but it might leave us waiting.
skanalyze
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Hi Ivan thanks for the idea. Where would you put your stop loss level on this one?
IvanLabrie
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@skanalyze, you can enter around here if shorting, stop above the recent high, or at Friday's close if more aggressive. Targetting at least 2170.4 seems logical. Lower is very hard, but maybe it happens. The best way, is to start with a wider stop, and smaller size, and add and tighten the stop if it progresses favorably.
So, either:
-Short now, risk 0.25-0.5% with stop above the highest high + 1 tick.
-Short now, risk 0.25-0.5% with stop at last Friday's close.
-Short now, risk 0.5-1%% with stop at 2267.26 and be willing to add if we drop under 2185.58 within 3 days.
or
-Short individual stocks, overvalued companies, like C, AXP, CAT, V, MA, CLX, etc.
-Short by buying SDS, using the same risk management as with SPX500. Uses up half the cash.
@IvanLabrie, Thanks
I am bullish on this overall but I will try to use this retracement by entering short here with a tight stop. thanks again
IvanLabrie
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@skanalyze, good luck! I think it's safer to keep risk small, which you can do in different ways like I describe. Some people go and risk huge, and that is almost always a bad idea. Starting small, you can add if it works, which almost no one does...
skanalyze
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@IvanLabrie, yea I must admit adding later something I cant do :) Humanly problems lol