SPX Market Top? The Immediate Future Looks Bad

2018년 8월 22일

Let's look at a few things here - First: Based on the last down swing we have reached the 1.272 extension which, based off the patterns taught by Larry Pesavento, is a key extension for trend reversal (the other, 1.618 I have on the chart as well, as that'd be the next target if this one fails). Second: Volume is telling us a similar story, I added my relative volume oscillator to show how volume has been below average on upswings, then above average on sell offs. These moves haven't had any confirmation volume on the way up which looks bearish for the future (looks worse on weekly and monthly charts). Third: Major RSI divergence - which is my go to for catching trend reversals. This too gets worse on the weekly and monthly charts. Fourth: the immediate pattern is an ascending broadening wedge - more bearish immediate implications. I don't think there's a question regarding IF we go down here - just how far? I am extremely bearish long term so I think you know my answer. I'd also like you to take a look at this post from Ajion showing that the current pattern has major resemblances to the market top in 2000 during the dot com bubble, a link to his post is beneath this.