Analysis on Pharmaniaga Performance in a Bullish Trend

2021년 5월 27일

TP: RM 7.20
Comments:

Expected to peak at RM7 by 1st week of August.

statement rationale:

1. Pharmaniaga has been on a downtrend trajectory since May 2015 and has formed a reversal pattern, (cup & handle in daily and weekly chart)
2. Strong product demand, expecting vaccination peak Q3 & Q4/2021. with the arrival of Sinovac Vaccine in July 2021, Pharma share price is expected to beat analyst expectation of RM5.20.
3. Current increase has been supported by AstraZaneca vaccination programme (as at 27 May 2021)
Expecting bullish run until Q1 - Q2/2022 based on past bullish performance between May 2009 - April 2015. which lasted for 217 days, about 7 months bullish run.

The potential to break RM7.3 (alltime high, Apr 2015) will depend on the demand and supply of the global vaccination provider. The vaccination industry is expecting to decline due to the risk mentioned below:

1. More vaccine provider will emerge hence increase the level of competition
2. Higher production cost
3. The cases of covid-19 in malaysia, or the effectivity of vaccine.
4. Global vaccination supply and demand (supply chain)
5. Financial performance

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the technical analysis backed by some of the sentiment that influencing the price movement,
NOT A BUY CALL :)