Last week I published my analysis of NZDUSD on daily chart (SEE RELATED IDEAS). This update is a fractal view of the potential structure (Ending Diagonal). You can see 5 waves for what could it be the third wave for the daily ED.
Why does forex frequently break well-established technical analysis? Usually involving a dramatic move then correction? (Sep-6-2016 -> Sep-11-2016). If it simply broke out of the channel, that would be fine, but instead it breaks out, get's everyone to long, then quickly pushes back into the channel and follows through with it as if nothing happened. Meanwhile someone got rich off of that fakeout,
Very good question about forex not to follow technical analysis. Of course, we as traders are always trying to use techniques to figure out the price movements. Most of time we fail until we got it right.
In other words, the reason forex and many other instruments break well-establised technical analyses is because the analyses were right just part of the process and then start to fail. Price has its own nature, a complex nature. Almost all technical analyses cannot comprehend the complexity.