The month of March starts with the bullish momentum from the previous month Feb 2024.
February closed with strength while creating a new ATH which I expect March to breach with ease. I will like to note: Monthly candle started on Friday March 1.2024 This is only of importance for the next sessions of intraday.
Weekly candle has not closed yet. I will add and update this idea once the weekly candle closes. Still momentum should carry us above 18144.75
Lets take a look at our environment.
Dollar's( CAPITALCOM:DXY ) inverse correlation to equities has not been too evident the last Month.
Evident has been Dollars quick reprising after rebalancing lower levels.
The quick reprising in this case is the continued push higher by price. You can take this as an unwillingness by "price" to go lower.
Why is this important? Dollar value affect purchasing power.
Futures Market:
ES ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Looking Bullish as well Expected to also take out 5123.50
But will keep an eye out for the weekly close since it is the weakest of the weekly profiles.
ZB ( CBOT:ZB1! ) Looks like it is neutralizing the downward momentum and is attempting to roll.
All around there are no signs that the Bullish momentum is changing -IT IS WHAT IT IS TILL IT'S NOT-
I will still recommend to check with the idea once Friday closes. Once Weekly profile closes on Friday we will have more information about the possible time span of current movement.
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Do not allow impatience to eat at you
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DXY
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I know this has not been the case lately at least not in any major way but Bearish Dollar=Bullish Equities
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Small Caps signaling a risk on scenario for some time now
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Eyes on Dow
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This is a breakout
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Here is the weekly candle for NQ confirming what many witnessed this Friday
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ES adding to the narrative
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We mentioned the weakness spotted in Dow so we will keep a close eye or YM price action
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Small Caps with a very clear message.. They want higher prices
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The Beauty of Price Structure
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Nothing Bearish about this
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Still Bullish but expecting this kind of re tracement and possible bound after.
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Well London had a surprise for us
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All of this buying before Powell be careful and wait till this settles you are not missing out on anything it will still be there
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When the Big guys are Buying you either get out the way or ride the wave The choice is yours
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Closing the “First”Week of March We saw, as expected price breach previous Highs and establish a new one. We spoke also of a Model were Price could reach Lower to establish the Low of Week Between Monday and Tuesday movement. Price reached lower creating a low of Week on Tuesday 3:00PM - 18082.75 Wednesday and Thursday we saw the reversal but FAILED to create New Hits even as impressive as its run up was. Friday tomorrow, what is next? Do we see Friday price action continue with momentum and create yet another high? It should have done that today. At the moment Price is stuck between its current range trapped between its internal value areas. The Macro continues to be Bullish that has not changed and if it does it will be too noticeable to deny. Maybe it is time again for Price to spend some time consolidating. Lets find out
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Once High of the Week was re-stablished we immediately started distributing it is Friday after all. No reason to continue buying for now. Price expected to consolidate between range. Enjoy your weekend will update once the Weekly profile is completed and will provide views on what is next
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Looks like Monday stablished a Higher Low Looking for 18425
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18425 reached now we wait on price I do believe we could see some downside or consolidation
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Direction is dependent on DXY If it appreciates NQ will go lower if it gets weaker NQ will go Higher I would like to see a bounce of DXY but all I can do at the moment is watch patiently
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Looking towards a strong close By creating a possible Low of Week on Monday we can expect Wednesday to attempt to create a new High
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We should have a bullish continuation the next 2 days
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Expecting a brief drop with immediate search for upside this morning
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Lets see if we get the reversal...
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Does not look good for the long continuation Price has steadily dropped since London
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Lets see if DXY continues to go down
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Oh ye of little faith
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Getting ready for a fast move upwards here
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The fact that we started March with the Bullish momentum of Feb does not mean price will remain in its course. There is the possibility of a structure shift that already occured. I explore this idea and the why in this short video
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I know we went over this on Monday but the more I look at it the more it makes sense now. The short video above gives you a brief explanation
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They are pushing very hard to avoid price from going down
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Easy does it
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Enjoy your weekend
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Your HTF Bullish structure remains intact
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This is a critical area for both Bulls and Bears
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We should hit this price level before or during the FOMC
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"REJECTED"
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A little balance is good
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Tomorrow is Friday Just took out another Higher High Expecting some form of accumulation and Volatility (Tight range?)
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What happens here? Strong Bullish momentum HTF LTF Rebalances- Weakness?
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Now we see the attempt to reach for highs A little too early in the week for my liking which leads me to belive that something might be up if we do
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Let's make a decision here
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Expecting an attempt at High of Week between today and tomorrow
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another leg down
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Last day of the Month if you have not noticed price has been in a hurry to reach its objectives. PUA
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Hope this gives you an idea of how we are starting April...