I think fed will surprise the markets with a 0.50 rate hike at the March 15-16 meeting. I think the rate hike + a spike in bond yields will decimate the market. In panic many retail traders will get washed out and sit on the sidelines. In response, funds & whales will prop up the market on low volume to then decimate the market with shorts. They will rinse and repeat all the way down IMO
코멘트
⋅
Since China is locking down Shanghai due to Covid, the Fed may want to delay rate hikes. However, the downside on their lockdown may outweigh the upside of a rate hike delay on the market. I am still confident in the overall thesis as Spy still has a long way to go down. However, the timeline may differ as it will depend on how the new Covid wave is handled. Most likely it will either cause a quicker fall in the markets or delay the inevitable crash. Given that, it is better to buy further out and in the money options.
Since China is locking down Shanghai due to Covid, the Fed may want to delay rate hikes. However, the downside on their lockdown may outweigh the upside of a rate hike delay on the market. I am still confident in the overall thesis as Spy still has a long way to go down. However, the timeline may differ as it will depend on how the new Covid wave is handled. Most likely it will either cause a quicker fall in the markets or delay the inevitable crash. Given that, it is better to buy further out and in the money options.