1. Breakout of Regression Channel 2. 60 min and 4hr 10/20 EMA positive with both bands now green replicated in MACDs. 3. Price extended to BULL B4 which is 125% normal daily range and 50% weekly range. 3. Price above 50, 100, 200 Daily EMAs G, O, R.
a. Limited extension now for rest of day although still marginally possible. b. Pullback required to between 25% and 50% (yellow circle) of up move to gain good RR to go long. c. Be patient !!
NB. Graphics are only explanatory and not exacting on any time scale.
In conclusion to this post and I'm not sure if anyone follows up on them but GBPUSD was unlocked today for a LONG trade at approximately 10.45am BST.
Attached is the 60m and 5m chart to show entry and exit point and the "why" behind it all.
Same setup trategy as yesterday with a pullback to the buying zone.
Part 1 - (60m chart with 240m overlay)) 240m 10EMA>20EMA (green cloud) 240m HIST turned green (when HIST red above the zero line it's classed as a pullback or consolidation)
Part 2 - (15m chart with 60m overlay) 60M 10EMA>20EMA (cloud green/HIST green) replicated with MACD crossing zero line.
Part 3 - (entry/exit fine tuning on the 5m with 15m overlay) 5m 10EMA>20EMA (cloud green replicated with MACD piercing zero line)
Part 4 - Look at the ADR levels . . . B3 (green) is 100% of Average daily Range so if you're like me and simply want to be profitable on the trade, then the balance of probabilities of this area being its maximum range for the day is high and I bank it. 43 points thereabouts as plotted on the 5m chart with very little risk and a high probability of success.
I watch 6 x Majors, the USD index and because I'm a Brit, the FTSE for good measure.
No other Majors have shown a trade even if they are moving in sync with GBPUSD. There was one opportunity on the GBPUSD yesterday but it was too late in the day for me so I opted out. Likewise a SHORT on the USDJPY yesterday at about 6pm BST but again too late in the day for me to take advantage of but worth looking at if you would like to see a high probability SHORT trade playing out.
Find a setup . . . apply the simplicity of a high probability strategy with layered time frames and indicators. It works on all financial instruments.
NB. I'm a "Pro" member on TradingView and that only allows me 5 x indicators but as you see I have a few more and that's because I've combined the coding into just three thanks to some of the coders on here that have allowed their scripts to be open source.
Over and out - TS
ThomasSelby
⋅
6.30am BST . . . trading can be a frustrating waiting game at times. Overnight action has landed Price back to 50% FIB and month end doesn't inspire me with confidence for a readable day of Price action.
There is no LONG signal to complete Part 2 of the setup as I write and if Price meanders down and below the weekly VWAP (red 2pt) and 62% FIB, I'll have to call this one a miss unless it holds.
Hopefully I've attached a screenshot which has the 60m and 15m updated charts. Like a key, the notches have to align across all timeframes to unlock the trade.
The notches are not aligned in this case and although I'll keep an eye on things, it looks to be failing and that happens all the time in searching for the successful ones.
If things change I'll update accordingly.
ThomasSelby
⋅
7.20pm BST . . . OK Price has done its pullback and is teetering around the 50% FIB, daily VWAP and previous H on the 60m. The FIB markers are not to the pip so don't be too concerned if it dips below. This is breakout trade if it's going to be a trade at all so there is good cause for some pushing and shoving at these levels and a potential washing of weak hands.
Tomorrow if it's a still a valid setup, I'll describe what boxes need to be ticked to go LONG. If it goes pear shaped overnight then it's on to the next one . . . they don't all work out.
ThomasSelby
⋅
NB2. Indicators will auto change with Price movements but the drawing tools need to be manually adjusted . . . meaning redraw FIBS to new HOD if it increases but the concept remains the same from any new pullback point.
In conclusion to this post and I'm not sure if anyone follows up on them but GBPUSD was unlocked today for a LONG trade at approximately 10.45am BST.
Attached is the 60m and 5m chart to show entry and exit point and the "why" behind it all.
Same setup trategy as yesterday with a pullback to the buying zone.
Part 1 - (60m chart with 240m overlay))
240m 10EMA>20EMA (green cloud)
240m HIST turned green (when HIST red above the zero line it's classed as a pullback or consolidation)
Part 2 - (15m chart with 60m overlay)
60M 10EMA>20EMA (cloud green/HIST green) replicated with MACD crossing zero line.
Part 3 - (entry/exit fine tuning on the 5m with 15m overlay)
5m 10EMA>20EMA (cloud green replicated with MACD piercing zero line)
Part 4 - Look at the ADR levels . . . B3 (green) is 100% of Average daily Range so if you're like me and simply want to be profitable on the trade, then the balance of probabilities of this area being its maximum range for the day is high and I bank it. 43 points thereabouts as plotted on the 5m chart with very little risk and a high probability of success.
I watch 6 x Majors, the USD index and because I'm a Brit, the FTSE for good measure.
No other Majors have shown a trade even if they are moving in sync with GBPUSD. There was one opportunity on the GBPUSD yesterday but it was too late in the day for me so I opted out. Likewise a SHORT on the USDJPY yesterday at about 6pm BST but again too late in the day for me to take advantage of but worth looking at if you would like to see a high probability SHORT trade playing out.
Find a setup . . . apply the simplicity of a high probability strategy with layered time frames and indicators. It works on all financial instruments.
NB. I'm a "Pro" member on TradingView and that only allows me 5 x indicators but as you see I have a few more and that's because I've combined the coding into just three thanks to some of the coders on here that have allowed their scripts to be open source.
Over and out - TS