A terrible day for global risk sentiment with all major Equities finishing in the red. Highlights came from Fed Fund futures taking 6bp out of the Fed pricing until December, meaning markets have now fully priced a rate cut by year end. Dollar looks set to take control of the FX board once more as USD bulls enter back into the picture.
I am becoming increasingly concerned that the two sides are too far from each other to find common ground. Trust has been damaged on both sides as the Tweeter in Chief continues to lash out at China in the tit-for-tat escalation. The next key thing to track is whether financial stresses create the necessary pressure to get Xi and Trump on the phone to get talks on track…
After spending the last two weeks positioning around 1.115 for the move towards 1.13 and failing to clear the 1.126 yesterday here I am switching sides and tracking for a "final" flush in EURUSD towards 1.10 before we can start building a healthier floor. This move will make it a lot easier to trade the longer-term rebound in EUR coming later the year.
Good luck and remember to stay nimble.
코멘트
⋅
As expected bears took charge with a Fed Dec cut completely pricing into the market allowing the USD bid to resume. Will look to take some chips off the table as we approach the bid as usual and leave the rest running for the final targets.
코멘트
⋅
Monthly open remains offered after the knee jerk reaction from Euro tariff delays.
코멘트
⋅
As expected.
코멘트
⋅
Well done those who doubled down on the monthly open ... 1.115 is almost here
코멘트
⋅
Clearing first targets in the shorts here right on time for the open ... well done those on the sell side, it's time to trail our stops ...
코멘트
⋅
As expected we begin to chop around here as bears take some chips off the tables
코멘트
⋅
Spikes here from where we knew Bids would come in...
코멘트
⋅
Stops swept...
거래청산: 타겟 닿음
⋅
A late update here... all shorts cleared and beginning to work longs for 1.126
Hi @ridethepig, do you not expect EU to head to 1.1040 anymore? I noticed the most recent update marks bids in 1.1140 range, but doesn't show any data lower. Or are you expecting a significant retrace before it heads to 1.10? Thank you.
ridethepig
⋅
@rsam, in this particular case the chart referencing bids is showing we know in advance at 1.114/5 is a healthy place to do some profit taking .. so rather than taking full positions off the table and closing all, it is highlighting key areas for booking partial profits whilst the main targets in this swing remain in place at 1.1037.
rsam
⋅
@ridethepig, Ah, I see. Thank you, that's very useful to know :-)
look4edge
⋅
hey, rtp, great charts !
however, i see dollar trade crowded - c of b down in dxy running
also see huge upside squeeze risk in eur - destroying all shorts
therefore looking for eur long here
ridethepig
⋅
@look4edge, whilst I agree the underlying trend remains to the topside for EUR the issue here is timing. On the European side we still have ECB June to clear with TLTRO III details and "no time for tiers" confirmation still pending potentially till Q3... I recently scaled back the timing for EURUSD floor but I keep the view that with the widening US deficits and given how late we are in the business cycle, the dollar will peak later this year. It is important to note that the timing of this move will come from the US side because of its weight in re-rating stories overseas.