Prices have already hit the TP1 for +122 pips. Prices have also hit the bottom TL of the expanding triangle pattern and were initially rejected just as I said it would. But now, will prices keep going up? Or will it now fall back down? I don't know the answer to that question but what I will do is to safeguard some of my profits and let some run just in case.
MY TRADE PLAN I will close 50% of my LONG positions here and let the rest run with a trailing stop of 30 pis (about 25% of profits) just in case prices do continue higher. If it reverses and goes back down, then I will still have bagged +92 pips.
What if the bottom TL of the expanding triangle is actually sholder of H&S?
michraz
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I mean neck, not shoulder )
EverythingForex
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It's possible. One man's trash is another man's treasure as they say. It all depends on your perspective. So yes, if you see it that way, then it cna be. However, I caution as to the free use of the H&S pattern by itself as a reason to trade. Or IMHO, any pattern for that matter. Make sure it makes "sense" for there to be a H&S pattern first. then use other methods to confirm. I do think that prices should decline in this pair more but there is nothing that jumps out at me telling me to take a trade for now.
michraz
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Well, there is bearish Wolf wave pattern on the daily chart with about the same target.
Before I give you my take on your chart, I just want to say that anything I say is just my opinion and that in no way do I consider myself to be the ultimate authority on anything.
I don't agree with your Wolfe Wave because your point #1 is not placed correctly. That point is not part of the retracement. It is part of the previous impulse wave. Can it still work out that prices "happen" to get to your target? Sure. It can. Anything can happen. The danger will be that if it does, you may believe that the way you did it was right. And you'll do the same the next time and you get burned. That goes for drawing any kind of pattern! Many times, even if someone drew the pattern wrong, prices happen to go to their target for whatever reason and they will "think" they did it right. When in fact, they did not. And they repeat the same mistake the next time and get burned. That's why trading is not an exact science. Anything can happen. It's up to each individual trader to interpret the data correctly.
But as I said, by no means am I the authority on Wolfe Waves or any other technique. So no need to take my word as fact. For me, I don't see a good enough reason to take a SHORT trade on this pair for now. Again, I do THINK it may go down but I don't make trades on what I am feeling. I need hard data to take any trade. GL!
michraz
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Thanks for your comments.
BTW I added my Elliot wave count to the chart )
PipAngel
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im bearish. i think we have hit highs for today if not the week