Euro is falling over economic downturn and the ECB’s rate cuts

10월 15일

<Fundamental>
The market anticipates the ECB reducing rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week. This is due to the eurozone inflation rate dropping to 1.8%, which already meets the central bank's target. Moreover, mounting worries about an economic recession have amplified the demand for the ECB to persist with interest rate cuts. If the Eurozone industrial production for August and ZEW Economic Sentiment for October, which will be announced today, fall below the previous month's figures and market consensus, the euro may weaken further against the dollar.

<Technical>
EURUSD sustained its downtrend and fell to 1.0900. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, the gap consistently widens, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD stays below EMA21 and breaks 1.0870, the price may fall further to 1.0780. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches EMA21 and holds above 1.1000, where EMA78 coincides, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.1050.