ETHUSD update: These markets won't pull back, but do not get sucked in by the fear of missing out. Risk of a retrace is high within the current resistance zone even with the new long signal that has just appeared. As Andrew recently told some of his followers, "No trade is a trade".
The 503 to 541 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure) is a minor resistance that price is fluctuating within. The previous candle in this chart is an inside bar, and the current candle has broken the high of the inside bar. This is a buy trigger, but you must remember not all buy triggers are created equal when it comes to risk. Context is key in a situation like this. I am all for being long this market, but NOT on a buy signal in the middle of a resistance zone. All markets retrace, and this one will too.
The fact that the major bearish trend line was taken out with conviction is a long term bullish sign. This means buying pullbacks is the better choice since momentum is now favoring the long side. The newly established bullish trend line is the defining factor for this move. Until it is compromised, this market should remain strong. So where is the best place to buy?
In previous reports I was writing about the 432 and 451 resistance levels that required price to break above in order to confirm that the bulls are in control. These levels which were old resistance are now more likely to act as a new support and it just so happens to be in the vicinity of the bullish trend line. This is the first area I will be watching. If price never gets there, then I have no reason to buy.
In summary, as amazing as this short squeeze has been, buying at the high of it is an ineffective behavior for any time frame of trader. All markets retrace, just not always to the levels that we would like. A trading plan begins with formulating a general perspective and then evaluating levels AHEAD of time. Price will either retrace to the predetermined level, or it will not. If it chooses not to, then you simply adjust and find the more relevant levels. Jumping into a market because it looks great is usually worst time because the risk is higher and potential lower even after a standard buying signal. There are plenty of support levels that offer more attractive reward/risk opportunities, it is just a matter of waiting it out. As soon as a quality signal appears, it will be sent out to our S.C. community.
When you at the charts there were no reason for the price increasing from 415 to 464 just for couple of hours, with 2 more smaller jumps later. This is just a game of those who now what are the short positions, and they just want to squeeze those positions. Like they did with the long margins before that. And who knows all positions? Only the exchange kartell. So, you are right that the market will retrace. When enough long margins are established by the gamblers in this market, exchanges will immediatelly start to dump the price. Look at those volumes. Volumes becomming evertime bigger. I doubt it can be done without mass washtrading.
Regera
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Another excellent post Marc. Keep up the great work!
potadahead
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What about the bearish divergence in the handle on the 4hr chart?
Jour
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patience :D
some_guy
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you write eloquently, and yet when i check your predictions a few weeks old, theyre 90% dead wrong.
ste-vo
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Thank you for the analysis. Any updates?
KrYpTon_Horizon
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patakopesa
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What does any of this analysis mean when Eth in the near future hits, say, 800 dollars ? Micro analysis of a micro trend - no thanks.
tammy007
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@patakopesa, he is giving us realistic targets! ETH $800 or $8000 are the target of dumb money while smart money sell these dreams and their own bags to them!
patakopesa
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@tammy007,
Sure. Eth hitting 1200 dollars Dec 2017 - pipe dream ha. As for smart money - you bought Eth at 8 dollars last year March ? No ? Guess who did.