Back on January 24th, we forecast a potential bearish target with a "far-fetched" qualifier, although we also provided two other prior examples where that proprietary geometric pattern unfolded - See this chart, as well as examples in the USDollar index and AUDUSD here: tradingview.com/v/fmAxVwrT/.
CHANGE IN DIRECTION:
At this point though, we have to change our directional stance based on a BULLISH market reversal signal favoring further rallying in this index. While we remain cautious about further advance, the system is the plan. Hence, we will continue to plan the trade, and trade the plan.
STRUCTURES:
On a structural standpoint, 10549 offers the next probable resistance overhead. However, once surpassed, expect this level to convert to support as price might probably use that structure as a springboard to the new high target defined today as "TG-Hi = 1109 - 25 FEB 2014".
At that point, added forecast will require a review and further analysis of the chart, but the background that motivates our interest in the lower target defined earlier in the year as "TG-Lo = 7791 - 24 JAN 2014" is based on a proprietary geometric pattern we called "The Great White". Caveat here is that our predictive analysis and forecast are NOT based on price action, whereas our proprietary patterns (Great White, Janus, Deep Shark, Euclid) are price-based, hence less relevant to our way of analyzing the market. Nonetheless, some traders may be exclusively pattern traders, and on our side, we continue to discover, test and validate such patterns as well, out of curiosity.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO:
In case the bullish scenario would not play out (i.e.: further rallying and breaking above structure at 10549), we would like to bring the trader's attention to two other structural levels:
One rests at 9650, defined as the prior structure low. However, transgression of that level should not necessarily constitute a bullish abandonment, or herald a directional reversal. In fact, in our system, we would tolerate a reversal as low as the "Pink" 9506-to-9371 range. However, if and once price breaks below and closes below ("BBCB, as opposed to breaking above and closing above, or "BACA"), then we would be concerned bulls, and would seek ways to reverse tack.
OVERALL: A BULLISH reversal confirmation occurred with a new bullish target at 11092. Further downside might exist, but that scenario does not currently apply to the directional signal just released by our prop strat system.
Cheers,
David Alcindor TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster Predictive Analysis & forecasting
----------------------------------------------------- Get out Twitted forecasts, signals,analyses: Alias: @4xForecaster -----------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
코멘트
4xForecaster
⋅
11 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:
Original analysis hit that TG-Hi dead-on. At that time, I did not share the TG-Hix, but it has remained quite robust a Predictive/Forecasting Model throughout the months/years - Here is the updated chart:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
13 JUL 014 - Update:
From Twitter:
"ESP35 rolls down from forecast TG-Hi = 11092; Post EARLY reversal signal confirmation: via @TradingView | #IBEX35"
Traders,
As per forecast, price is rolling down from TG-Hi target @ 11092. Model is also posting an early market reversal signal, pending final confirmation. IF and ONCE confirmation is obtain, then floor opens to pre-defined bearish targets.
Predictive/forecasting model calls for significant bullish entrenchment at the range, defined by the following values:
1 - 9506
and
2 - 9371.
Also, predefined in the field is a low-probability target-low, defined as:
"TG-Lo = 7791 - 24 JAN 2014".
Note that both of these targets were originally defined at the beginning of the year, such that:
1 - TG-Hi = 1109 - 25 FEB 2014
and
2 - TG-Lo = 7791 - 24 JAN 2014.
At this point, a decline might be mitigated by a relief rally to a Fib-paced upside, but it is NOT expected to attain or challenge the recent historical highs carved at 11242. In other words, bears have the upper hand going forward, until such a time that the model interprets a different directional bias.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
HamedAghajani
⋅
Thanks for the update David. A tiny typo -Target High 11092 should be instead of 1109 in the recent comment
4xForecaster
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Ooops. Yes! Thank you!
David
4xForecaster
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10 FEB 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
"ESP35 reversed at forecast 11092 defined last February ... In motion for DEEP reversal: via tradingview.com"
Traders,
Last February, I added a forecast that defined a potential reversal. Unlike the other targets which I define as TG-1, TG-2 or TG-3, the reversal levels are instead defined as TG-Hi for high-mark target and TG-Lo for low-mark target. These two targets are distinguished from the numerical ones as they most often define a high-probability reversal potential level.
In this case, the target was defined on February 25th, 2014 as a high-probability reversal level at 11092 - As noted before, that level has been reached and since then, price has reversed following a sideways consolidation interim.
At this point, the predictive/forecasting model I use has emitted an early market reversal sign, pending confirmation of a bearish market reversal signal. Nonetheless, the market has turned to the downside and has since favored bears.
A significant lower target awaits down below, defined much earlier than this TG-Lo, as it dates back to January 24th and points to 7791 as a high-probability reversal level. Despite its distant position, the model I have used has been quite remarkable in pointing to far-fetched, but ultimately attained levels. However, I would remain dubious until such time as a bearish market reversal signal is emitted, as it remains pending.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
Original analysis hit that TG-Hi dead-on. At that time, I did not share the TG-Hix, but it has remained quite robust a Predictive/Forecasting Model throughout the months/years - Here is the updated chart:
David Alcindor