We have an interesting pattern, going back to the 1996 elections. I overlay the one year inflation adjusted returns of the dollar, S&P500, gold and 30 year treasury yields. I see some paralells regarding price action, and would be interesting to see if we get a similar situation going forward. This is just an observation and what I think is likely to happen based on the pattern of price action after the elections.
Right now I'd say we have peak pessimism, distrust, lower merger activity, IPOs, lower consumer spending, deleveraging since the peak in the Yen, but it looks like things could turn around.
코멘트
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For example, one can extrapolate this concept, and find certain similarities. I for one, had great periods of creativity as a musician, and of discovery of new and exciting bands and artists right before stock market peaks. Assesing me personal feelings and appreciations, I can see that most of the artists I enjoy, and their best work in my opinion coincides with these periods, leading to a slump, after the peak.
Nowadays, I find myself in such a slump, but as an individual actor, I'm also part of the whole, and it's easy to see the similarities in different fields, like arts, economics, politics, culture, showing these same cycles of boom and bust...Certainly an interesting phenomenon.
What is your take, from your particular field? Perhaps someone can comment further on the subject.
코멘트
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Looks to be on track.
코멘트
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Exactly 100% as expected, but at a faster pace! This is a radical move...fastest recovery since 2008 lows.
코멘트
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There ya go...Nostradamus who?
코멘트
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Looks good so far.
코멘트
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A correction in pretty much everything seems logical here.
Perhaps we're seeing a repeat of a different but similar period too, but so far, the main theme of gold down, dollar up, stocks up, yields up has been the same.
bhsencer
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@IvanLabrie, hi: many countries left the dollar for trading , get very strong, interestingly they start inclining to local currency or gold. I am hopeful for gold to do better next year. The rest is the same as you mentioned. The world economy is floating on 150T depth, scary.....