I'm no longer in a position as the probability that this market drifts or falls further downward outweighs the probability that it moves upward from here. We had a strong bearish divergence of much lower RSI while printing a higher high, on a higher time-frame. That being said, I've charted support/resistance zones on Doge and have been watching us lose support after support. So now these represent profit-taking resistance zones if Doge were to bounce.
The only spot I would really be interested in jumping back in rn would be when we fall to .36. That is where we received the most buying volume previously and a good spot for the bulls to defend. Perhaps if a bullish engulfing candle were to present itself, especially on the 4-hour time frame, then I might also find a spot to long.
There is still a chance for a breakout to the upside, and indeed Doge is holding this upper .40s range pretty well so far. But I'm done relying on the unpredictable and utterly whimsical tweeting nature of an eccentric billionaire to move my trade in the direction that I would like. It's akin to a kind of blind faith and worship that isn't going to pay my bills in the long run.
I want to learn to be a self-sufficient trader and not a 'number go up plz' kind of person.
The danger of being in Doge rn is, if we lose .36 beyond just wicking below, there is a strong probability of falling to below .05.
As for myself, I was tricked into buying Doge in the mid .50s after it had a strong reaction from the upper .30s. My initial idea was that it was in a falling wedge and to buy around .37. Well I was right about a bounce there and I would have made good money had I gone with my original plan. But it was too dangerous with bitcoin about to fall.
After the bounce the structure looked like a cup and handle. I was tricked into buying. Uh-oh.
My biggest mistake was walking away after buying in w/ out a stop loss bc I had to take care of some things lasting several hours. By the time I could return to monitor the trade Doge had fallen below .50. I sold at a loss. In retrospect had I been monitoring the trade I would have seen the upward push losing steam and gotten out slightly ahead instead of majorly behind.
I tell you all of this to illustrate the dangers of trading and how important it is to make sure you have all your bases covered the moment you enter into a trade. Also in the hopes that we can all keep learning, growing and relying on our own analytical minds and not just a belief in something that is tenuous at best and that we don't fully understand.
Just as many countries today offer the freedom of a separation between religion and state, perhaps we should separate our blind faith from our finances and rely on a strategy that is carefully filtered by logic, weighed by evidence.
What do you think? Is Doge going to bounce soon? How low will we go before the hodlers get some relief? Do we see .88 or even fly over $1.00 soon? On a larger scope, is this just the beginning or middle of a major alt season, or have we been tricked and everything slowly floats downward from here?
I think we've been tricked by sentiment and intellectual mistakes. A lot of the crypto intelligentsia believe in the "Stock-to-Flow" theory, which predicted that BTC would hit $100,000 this year. The most notable guy who believes in this is Caymand Islands investor Raoul Paul. There's interesting content on YouTube going into why this theory is flawed.
Alt season peaked when Cardano went over $2 recently. It started after Bitcoin completed its 1-Week Chart timeframe Bollinger Band Walk in January/February and started to dettach. We didn't notice that BTC dettached from the 1-Week Bollinger Band months ago, signaling the end of the bull rally, because it's been doing a sideways distribution ever since over many months. We were essentially too tired out by 4-Hour/1-Day chart volatility to notice.
Once Ethereum dettaches from its 1-Week timeframe Bollinger Band Walk and floats down, there will be widespread redemptions in all cryptocurrencies. Ethereum hasn't dettached yet. Litecoin hasn't dettached yet. Dogecoin hasn't dettached yet. But they're starting to. They're on the cusp of dettaching. On the 1-Day timeframe, this would be fixable during the bull market. On the 1-Week timeframe, it's not fixable without a bear market correction.
We all make mistakes. I accumulated 70% of my short position at 0.48 cents and 30% at 0.39 cents. I'm disappointed that I didn't short it at 0.59 cents. However, if we get it right in the big picture, it is still possible to make hundreds of millions in our lifetimes. There's no limit to dreams powered by logic.
ClearOpenDoor
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@hauteville, dropping knowledge bombs on my threads! I very much appreciate all of your ideas which have linked me to people and thoughts that I have not previously encountered.
Last time it was Dave the Wave, this time it's Raoul Paul, Stock-to-Flow and B-Band movements as signals for alt seasons.
I am overwhelmed but determined! I have Starred this in my e-mail so I can keep trying to dissect it!
The Bollinger Band Walk? Is that a new dance move the kids are doing these days?
I've taken a precursory look at John Bollinger and his bands.
And I thought that head bands and hair bands were the most popular things to come out of the 80's!
I don't want to get too mixed up, so I may save these BBands as material for next week
But, it looks like I can seek out a couple books on the subject to read soon.
On a side note, Cardano made it all the way to $2 recently?
This is what happens when I get side-tracked camping out on electric car-maker's Twitter feeds! o_O
hauteville
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@ClearOpenDoor, You're welcome! I'm learning from your analysis since you use complimentary, but different, TA. That's funny. Yes, BBands are highly utilized by the whales.
Irrespective of politics, Nansy Pelosi's husband shorted TESLA in late December or January and made a killing. It was actually an easy call, because around that time TESLA dettached from its Upper BBand on the 1-Week chart, signalling the end of TESLA's bull rally.
BBands are something that I didn't learn until it was too late...after I lost my first $30,000 chasing a stock that had fell off its higher timeframe BBand. It happens all the time. People chased BTC at $64,000 and got hurt (unaware that it was too late because it had fallen off the 1-Week Upper BBand by March).
Alt season peaked when Cardano went over $2 recently. It started after Bitcoin completed its 1-Week Chart timeframe Bollinger Band Walk in January/February and started to dettach. We didn't notice that BTC dettached from the 1-Week Bollinger Band months ago, signaling the end of the bull rally, because it's been doing a sideways distribution ever since over many months. We were essentially too tired out by 4-Hour/1-Day chart volatility to notice.
Once Ethereum dettaches from its 1-Week timeframe Bollinger Band Walk and floats down, there will be widespread redemptions in all cryptocurrencies. Ethereum hasn't dettached yet. Litecoin hasn't dettached yet. Dogecoin hasn't dettached yet. But they're starting to. They're on the cusp of dettaching. On the 1-Day timeframe, this would be fixable during the bull market. On the 1-Week timeframe, it's not fixable without a bear market correction.
We all make mistakes. I accumulated 70% of my short position at 0.48 cents and 30% at 0.39 cents. I'm disappointed that I didn't short it at 0.59 cents. However, if we get it right in the big picture, it is still possible to make hundreds of millions in our lifetimes. There's no limit to dreams powered by logic.