DOW JONES 1st 1W Bullish Cross since 2016. Can we see 42k next?

2023년 9월 13일

Dow Jones (DJI) is forming this week the first MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross (when the former crosses above the latter) on the 1W time-frame since September 2016 (assuming January/ February 2021 was flat due to the COVIC flash crash).

This on its own is a major long-term buy signal, especially since the 1W MA50 has been supporting since March. As you can see the 2022 - 2023 price action is very similar to the 2015 - 2016 sequence. Both fractals started on a Bear Cycle under Lower Highs, which bottomed after marginally breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The new Bull Cycle was confirmed after the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned it into a Support being formerly a Resistance. The 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross signified the bottom. Notice how even the 1W RSI and 1W MACD fractals are identical with their respective Higher Lows.

It appears that Dow is currently past the initial Channel Down and on the Circle pattern, which in 2016 was the final consolidation before a hyper aggressive rally that topped in January 2018. Before that top it reached the 1.5 and 1.786 Fibonacci extensions.

We treat the current pull-back as the last opportunity to buy this upcoming rally while the price is still that low. Having relatively low expectations, we expect to see at least 42000 (1.5 Fibonacci) by the end of Q1 - start of Q2 2024.

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