US 30 Bear Trend; If continuation from bear flag pennant

2019년 8월 27일

Equities forming a pennant. Usually these are continuation patterns. A measured move down from flagtip would expect to make a bottom half of flag-pole equal to top half, for about 1800+ pips; this would drop index near 24200, or a bit less.

IMO the Megaphone Trend is still dominant. A breakout to upside is still possible if global events magically resolve favorably; this seems doubtful atm. FOMC will likely be too little too late, as usual.

You can see index fell sharply below rising TL, bounced up to retest it, and was rejected. Although another retest is possible, it seems the Bears are gaining traction now.

This alternative Bear Theory to compare & contrast with my earlier pub on a Bullish Reversal. If the Bulls fail this will unwind real fast. Still consolidating- caution is in order!

GTLA trade at your own risk, this isn't advice, just an idea.

2019년 8월 27일

노트

Starts to look bearish but wait see if test of lower TL holds above 257. If held, another test of upper TL Weds.

2019년 8월 28일

액티브 트레이드

Bought 30 puts on the gift-lift Weds AM. Tyvm for the cheap puts you Bullish Fools!

Im in Sep DIA 255; Sep QQQ 185; Oct IWM 145 b/c they were giving these away. GLTA!

2019년 9월 3일

노트

Reached up to TL and rejected. More whipsaw likely before continuation.

2019년 9월 3일

액티브 트레이드

Legged out of the starting position and rolled into lower strikes shorting the retrace. Still high risk, a tweet from the Great Donald could spike it back to TL, although it seems that a correction is likely.

2019년 9월 3일

액티브 트레이드

Bearish, but resting at near-term support and risk for a rally; i hedged the short position with a SPY bull spread on 10 x Sep 291 calls vs Friday Sep 06 293s for net $2.94.

Cheap insurance; if it tanks this will be lost; but the shorts will grow more. If it bulls a bit this will offset any weakness in October long puts. GLTA!

2019년 9월 3일

노트

Arora report noticed the Megaphone:
thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-of-megaphone-top-in-the-stock-market

Nice graphic!

2019년 9월 4일

노트

Hedges paid off, showing small unrealized losses on long puts; doubled down.

News-related price action rarely lasts more than a few days; worry and angst will return shortly. Indexes trading in a price channel near top of channel, back at R.