On June 19, 2017 the SPX came within less than 1 point from a long term Fibonacci coordinate I posted back in February 2017. Please see my various posts referring to major resistance in the SPX 2450 to 2460 area.
Today 6/29/17 the NDX broke below very important support of the double bottom at 5633 and 5634. Also today the SPX decisively broke below the lower trend line of a near perfect parallel trend channel. This implies the SPX trend is now down.
The SPX Elliott wave count from the 6/19/17 top appears to be a series of "ones" and "two" down- a very bearish pattern.
There are two Fibonacci resistance points at exactly 2428.30 and just above this is prior chart support. If the SPX can reach this support zone on 6/30/17 or 7/3/17 it would be a gift for the bears!
Long US holiday week end begins 6/30/17. I suspect most big traders will be on vacation 6/30/17 - 7/4/17, because of this there probably won't be big moves up or down until 7/5/17.
Get short if SPX reaches the resistance target zone. Down side target zone is SPX 2320-2330. Time target 7/19/17 - 7/23/17. Mark
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The_Unwind
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I am beginning to think Mr. Rivest can walk on water,
or at the very least see things that others simply DO NOT..................................................
With the 6/30 morning open and morning high at the resistance zone at 2428-2431,
1 minute MACD gave a sell signal, and it was a very quick 8 point S+P decline to 2423 !
I trade the NDX and a short at NDX 5681 using the same criteria,
A short trade on NDX just gained 40, I repeat 40 points to the DOWNSIDE
5680 to 5640, like a knife going thru hot butter.
I think the Obamacare repeal vote will dictate whether this market can stay alive or make new lows. We are in a downtrend now, so path of least resistance now is down and to use resistance as inflection. The wild card here is 2nd qtr earnings which could give the market some legs. I personally think we've seen the top for the year. There could be a year end rally but energy will keep the market from making new highs. Volatility season will start in July and this makes the case for more downside. Late btfd ers will make for easy money selling against them to the downside. It is clear the big banks are scrambling to play hot potato, and rotating their money to the least desired assets like banks, energy, retail, small caps, etc because there is no where else to put the money. I guarantee you money will leave those crappy sectors on a dime and pretty much everything will be going down soon. I am waiting patiently to re-short retail and energy. Even if I have to wait a month. It is strange that yields are going up again now, because I see yields falling right back down soon and yield curve flattening again.
I just wanted to add, don't forget that there is a FED minutes meeting on July 5th. Hence, the chances of a big move may be greater since the big traders will likely be there for that day, as you mentioned previously.
Thanks Mark for the guidance. Two questions
1. You mention this is a major top. Your timing for the drop is withing the next 3 weeks. so after the drop, we are likely to put another high in August? the reason im asking is that i also trade vertical spreads (options) and need wondering if i hsould use august expiration as well.
2. I was stopped out of my RUT short positions, will try again tomorrow. to be clear, you thing we topped there as well. correct?
My studies of the SPX tops in 2007, 2010, 2011, and 2015 showed that in three of those four years the topping process took two months to complete.
About one month of decline followed by a one month rally to a lower top.
This lower top was followed by declines to new lows.
Use the SPX resistance zone in this post as a guide to trading RUT.
or at the very least see things that others simply DO NOT..................................................
With the 6/30 morning open and morning high at the resistance zone at 2428-2431,
1 minute MACD gave a sell signal, and it was a very quick 8 point S+P decline to 2423 !
I trade the NDX and a short at NDX 5681 using the same criteria,
A short trade on NDX just gained 40, I repeat 40 points to the DOWNSIDE
5680 to 5640, like a knife going thru hot butter.
Another REMARKABLE Call by Mr. Rivest. BRILLIANT.
Thank you.
The_Unwind