Bitcoin was being smothered by bearish analysis across social media platforms before this last pump and we all know now that when the majority is arguing for a bearish move that that is precisely when the bulls tend to show themselves.
To be fair, during this period the market did appear rather neutral to me and we can't dispel the clear effect the disgraceful and untrue article that the Coin Telegraph released, resulting in a large disparity in short positions held versus long positions. However, no matter the occurrences within the physical world, we must respect what the chart is telling us and shift our perspective so that we may take advantage of specific situations that are out of our control. Take a moment and think back to when Covid-19 first reared its ugly head and consider how we as intelligent traders, could have taken advantage of such an event.
After the wipeout of the majority of short positions held from 30k and below and taking into consideration the strong fundamentals of Bitcoin and the upcoming halving, I believe we are in the midst of the beginnings of a powerful bull market. Does this mean we should bet the house on a 100x leveraged long of Bitcoin at this very moment? Of course not. But now is the time to be vigilant and make plans for the next step in your trading strategy, whether you entered a long at 16k or were liquidated on a short at 30k.
We are currently running into some resistance in the 35k zone, where we actually find confluence with the golden pocket using fibonacci retracement taken from the last bull market's all time high to the recent bear market's low. This zone will decide whether we enter into a raging bull market now, or if the temperament settles through a longer consolidation for a powerful explosion to the upside.
There may be a trade here now for those on very low leverage who are willing to take the risk. As we can see in the chart, Bitcoin formed a large double bottom and has already broken out, nearly meeting it's target. If Bitcoin breaks through 35k now, then we are likely to see an upswing to 40-42k, where the next clear resistance and the 0.5 fib meet. For those actively seeking an opportunity with less risk, but a larger chance to miss the next move, a buy order in the 29.5-31.5k zone seems in order. On the 4hr time frame, we can see that Bitcoin is currently breaking out of a bull flag, however we are yet to see this breakout confirmed by volume. Whether we pull back here before moving up, or blast right through this 35k level, the bullish target remains the same for me at 40-42k.
I'm not here to tell you which decision is correct, only to provide my own analysis and thoughts on the market based on the information at hand. I personally will be building a smaller position if we do see some volume out of this 4hr pattern, but I also have orders ready to fill at the 31k level if Bitcoin decides it needs to cool down a bit before the next move.
Be wise and patient and always remain objective in your trading. It's difficult because we are not robots, but the more we can remain watchfully unbiased, the more we stand to gain. Don't fret over missed opportunities; instead, look to the future and you will find endless opportunity.