Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

2023년 11월 16일

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

The price of Bitcoin continues to move within the ascending parallel price channel. After an unsuccessful retest of the 38000 level, the price returned to its lower boundary, where we are currently awaiting a retest. Thus, a new price range of 35000 - 38000 has formed.

For BTC to continue its upward movement, it needs to surpass the resistance level at 38000 and consolidate above the upper boundary of the price channel. If this occurs, we anticipate a growth impulse towards the 40000-42000 zone, where the next significant resistance block is located.

However, the RSI indicator shows a classic bearish divergence, increasing the likelihood of a correction before further growth. If, under selling pressure, the price consolidates below the lower boundary of the price channel, we expect a correction in the 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci levels range. A retest of the global ascending trendline might occur in this range. The Imbalance 1W zone is also situated there, where it is necessary to fill the gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes.

The correction scenario can be invalidated if the price manages to break the 38000 resistance level with an impulse movement and consolidates above it. News regarding the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF for GrayScale or BlackRock funds could contribute to this.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, the price of BTC once again failed to consolidates above the global ascending trendline. RSI indicators are also forming a bearish divergence, indicating the need for a local corrective movement. If sellers manage to break the support level at 35000, we will expect the formation of a Bearish Wedge pattern and a global correction of the entire growth from the beginning of this year to the 0.38 Fibonacci levels, where the psychological support level of 30,000 is located. However, news regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could provide another powerful upward impulse. If this happens in the near future, the correction may be postponed again.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the greed zone at 70.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,371 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has fallen to 52.2.
Based on the analysis of significant order blocks in the order books, the demand and supply zones are situated at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 25,000 - 35,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 38,000 - 48,000

Levels for entering long positions:
34,000-35000 - zone of potential retest of the trendline
30,000 - a psychological support level
28,000 - a retest of the 200-week moving average and the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level

Levels for entering short positions:
36,000-38,000 - a possible retest of the trendline on the logarithmic chart
40,000 - a psychological resistance level
42000 - a large resistance block




📊 Fundamental analysis

The SEC is postponing the review of applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, the cryptocurrency market still perceives this positively because the delay is not a rejection. Bloomberg analysts expect, with a 90% probability, a positive decision from the SEC regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of January 2024.

On November 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published fresh data. According to the agency, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. slowed to 3.2% in October. In September, the index was at 3.7%. The CPI result exceeded forecasts, and the positive trend allows analysts to hope that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not return to raising the key interest rate.

The stock market responded very positively to this news. The S&P 500 index, representing the largest U.S. companies, held above the dynamic resistance line EMA50 and continued to rise. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke downward from the expanding wedge pattern.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ December 13, 2023, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.

➤ January 31, 2024, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.