I've been looking a lot at the ending stage of the previous bear market. Personally, I find that there's a very good case to be made that BTC will see another huge drop coming in the next couple of weeks because the current price movements are very closely resembling 2018. As seen on the chart, 2022 is around 2 weeks ahead when compared to 2018.
1: a July pump, leading to an August sell-off. 2: September pump, which is sold-off very quickly. And at last, BTC has been trading within a very tight range of around 10% after the September sell-off.
As mentioned in my volatility analysis at the bottom, low volatility (compression) generally leads to high volatility (expansion). It's very likely that Bitcoin will see a strong move in the coming weeks. Since we're so closely trading to 2018 & the macro is still terrible, I'm betting that BTC will see a massive drop.
@vnaeli, I have no view for the future price movement, because it's impossible to predict how the markets will react. A lot depend on so many factors (inflation, intrest rates, the ongoing war, possible extended recession, etc...) that you cannot base on the 4 years cycle graphics... just look at the previous cycle(s) of 2013 ATH (bear 2014-2015, acually ATH was begin 2014 I think but just for simplicity and 4 years cycle...) and you will see that 2018-2019 is not one on one. By the way: how can there be a 2 week in advance for 2018, while the ATH was initially 8 months earlier (apr 21) and then a double top (oct/nov 21) which there was NOT in 2017 (only ATH dec 17)? And the whole year 2018 (apart from Jan and short March period) was trading below 10000, while until May 22 we were far above 35000 most of the time. Maybe we are already in the "nov 18 - jun 19" period now (remember halving has been every time a few months earlier than 4 years, and it will be now again earler than may 24)? So, another leg down ? Maybe... maybe not... we are in a whole different period now, with the inflation and recession starting soon if they continue to raise intrest rates.
OG_cRoW
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This is the best analyses. 1 thing is sure...huge volatility is coming in the next days/weeks. Thanks for sharing. Really appreciate this one
vzik665
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I am waiting here with my $$$ for that big dip.
Jianto
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Very insightful
ste-vo
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Great insight. Thank you!
honzaHHH
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I will buy everything if we drop - there wont be any left for you