Bitcoin, The Mother of all Barts

2019년 8월 31일

Every once in a while, crypto has done what they call a "bart," where prices jump to another level for a sustained period, and then move suddenly back to what would have been the original trend. The pattern is named for its resemblance to the head of Bart Sipson, a popular U.S. cartoon character. The chart image accompanying this idea is what such a move might look like, in what might be the most extreme possible case.

Confirmation Bias
I'm actually bullish on BTC and desire to buy some.
That alone should be regarded as a bad sign.
Every time I buy a pattern of regular dips like this, it barts on me.
Using fib time to plot major reversals, there is a suspicious gap where reversal 4 should be.
The number 4 is an unlucky number for the Chinese. Maybe they won't buy either?
No reversal equals more down.
Using fib spirals correlation technique to predict the low without a September reversal, yields wild, sub-1000 results.
Tom Lee has blamed the previous Bitcoin crash on futures expiration. bitcoinist.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-price-drop-futures-expire/
Bitcoin futures expire September 19, giving bears a large incentive to drive prices down past that date.
There is a hurricane bearing down on Florida.
Trump's tweets aren't boosting the stock market as they used to (Google News).
If stocks sag through early September, along with BTC, it could scare potential investors to cash.
There are more things to worry about, but I'm running out of time.

Invalidation
This pattern should be easily dismissed. If prices don't start trucking down like this by mid-September, consider it fanciful speculation. Paranoia, perhaps.

2019년 9월 2일

노트

Sorry, 9/27 and 10/1/19 is when futures expire. Double-whammy! barchart.com/futures/futures-expirations/currencies

2019년 9월 27일

노트

So, looks like it's shifted over to the October 1st deadline.